We are at a striking distance from nifty hitting 20k and sensex touching 70k. Everything (on the screen) looks good for now and there must be various reasons in favour of this move. I agree that Bhaav Bhagwaan che (Price and market is always correct)
Yes - the trend is very bullish and market is not showing any signs of weaknesses but that can change in 1-2 days. My question to all the learned people is - What are the biggest risks that we need to aware of at this point of time? What factors can lead to a fall in the market?
All the bull run is due to the debt ceiling raised by US. Pretty sure other central banks would have done same. So it’s inflation for which all these rally is there. And consequently we can see the inflation outside too, everything is costly
Running when price is stretched is a fundamental behaviour of Nifty. Plus we have had a year+ long consolidation so odds are good that we might see a good rally in higher timeframes with intermittent pullbacks.
Its also almost crazy that short momentum is completely ignored by the market these days and all we get is buy the dips almost all of the time. There is no fear. Probably this is similar to 2017 rally. Atleast intraday data is similar, except that shorts with trend have been completely decimated now.
Eventually, things will change - god knows when - and then people buying the dips / averaging will probably be tested. Those without risk control might suffer. If i had to guess, we keep moving up and at some stage price goes parabolic, we hit peak climax and that is when markets gets vulnerable - but who knows.
Since April, i get very very few trades - volatility is so low
FED raising the interest rates in the coming months. Right now? Maybe specific stock fundamentals and results.
