What is a good return in FnO?

I have a capital of 50L. I have bought GILT and Liquid Funds for 40L and I am holding 10L in cash.
I do positional monthly FnO trades, completely risk managed. In FY 2024-25, I am able to generate 1 - 1.2L each month. Is that a good figure considering the capital I have invested? @Jason_Castelino

1 Like

In my opinion, it is very good. 2 percent per month from fno, and another 0.5 percent from debt funds will take your annual returns above 30 percent.

2 Likes

Anything positive is good imhošŸ˜‚

Thank you for the assurance.

1 Like

IMHO, the ā€œcompletely risk managedā€ part is the what you should get reviewed/analysed by other peers/experts, to ensure that there are no ā€œblind-spotsā€ i.e. any categories of risks that you may have missed in your calculations.

A lower circuit or upper circuit will cause limited loss. Further LC or UC will not cause additional loss. It would not happen every month, will it? What other risks am I overlooking? I am assuming here that Liquid and GILT Funds wont backstab me. Can you please elaborate?

Could you please explain how?

1 Like

wow :star_struck:

Can you please teach me so that I can become the richest person in the world in just a few years? That’s awesome :man_dancing:

1 Like

A risk-reward ratio of 1:2 justifies targeting over 15% ROI, especially considering your example of a 40L debt fund block yielding approximately 7% fixed returns. Prioritizing risk management remains crucial.

Best regards,
Gunjan Chokshi
Investallign

On paper, anything is possible. So, I am a bit skeptical about the statement made by Vampire. I am waiting for him to explain how and then analyze whether it is feasible or not

2 Likes

The general consensus is that this is an extremely unrealistic expectation.
Very likely one is ignoring some form of risk which is NOT equal to risk-free.

It will be useful to back-up/justify such bold claims with examples.
Doing so will enable others to identify and highlight the risks being ignored/missed.

both georgie and Vampire are accounts created yesterday.
Either Vampire is a scam account created in response to thread, or imo more likely - both are same person.

I have come across a guy claiming 10% per day ( but laughably couldn’t scale up - don’t remember excuse). All of these numbers are completely detached from reality, only fools will go looking.

They also have such similar stats

3 days visited
20m read time
12 topics viewed
89 posts read
1
given
3
received
1 topic created
4 posts created



3 days visited
29m read time
11 topics viewed
74 posts read
1
given
4
received
0 topics created
4 posts created
1 Like

If you look at the world through yellow colored glasses, the whole world will look yellow. That’s it. No argument. #IYKYK

Great strategy: if you make a profit, become an intraday trader; if you’re facing a loss, turn into a long-term investor

giphy_s

2 Likes

In this ā€œsystemā€

  • One potential risk is when the stock does NOT move at all.
  • Another potential risk is when a stock goes the other direction that one is ā€œbettingā€.

…and what happens when the stock does not go the direction one has bet, for the next N successive days?

How many days of ā€œthe stock did not follow the direction i betā€ can one survive?

  • Depends on what is the bet size for each day relative to one’s entire liquid capital.

and if one is chosing safer size of the bet
(say 5% of one’s liquid capital, so one can surivive 20 days of the market going against one’s bet )
the effective returns are relatively safer but more reasonable
(i.e. not 1% per day, but more like 0.05% per day)

Related Reading: Gambler’s fallacy.

1 Like

So, is there a chance that someday all 10 stocks could go against our trade? What should we do in that case?

Not necessarily. In a coin toss experiment, even with a 50% probability of getting heads, you can still encounter a series of 10, 20, or even 50 consecutive tails if the sample size is large enough.

So, there will be times when we face 10-20 consecutive losses.

the stocks we trade are not goes 5-10% down or up in a day

Sure sure… and therein lies the catch. :slight_smile:

While you might have made millions over a certain period,
unless that is repeatable,
and unless you can share the exact details on ā€œhow toā€
it makes sense not to setup false/unrealistic expectations for others.

PS: @VAMPIRE have you recently reviewed your personal finances/goals ?
In the context of the numbers you share,

  • have you set aside a ā€œnest-eggā€ that you do not risk anymore?
  • also, do you think it is time to ā€œquit the casinoā€ while you are ahead?
1 Like

Yes, I agree, but what I’m saying is if one day all trades go against us, how should we protect our capital? What is the disaster planning strategy? Converting to delivery, in my opinion, is not a good option.