What can you predict with greater accuracy ? intraday movements on short term timeframe or daily / weekly tf movements ?
And also , large cap stocks vs midcap , which are more predictable where technical analysis works better.
IMO If you want better accuracy, then:
Daily/Weekly charts are better than intraday charts. They have less random price movement and show clearer trends, so for me technical analysis has worked better.
Large-cap stocks are better than mid-cap stocks. They have higher trading volume, are less volatile, and usually respect support, resistance, and trendlines more consistently.
If your goal is to use technical analysis, large-cap stocks on the daily or weekly timeframe are generally the most reliable choice.
According to my trading experience, large-cap stocks tend to respect technical levels more consistently than mid/small caps due to higher liquidity and institutional participation. Nothing is guaranteed.
large cap stocks in F&o segment are more affected by derivative positions of participants , so don’t you feel they are less likely to respect support , resistance and trend-lines etc ? And they may also show unusual volatility during periods when Open interest is too high ?
Most large cap stocks are in the F&O segment, so i don’t think they respect technical levels. But yes , they have more inertia , momentum, liquidity than small caps. So trends take longer to reverse. And they have more elaborate accumulation / distribution phases unlike small-caps.
Statistically, forecasts made at an aggregate or bigger scale tends to be more accurate than the forecasts made at granular scales.
Most companies know this very well so instead of forecasting for the demand for the next week or month, they forecast for the whole year and then allocate monthly based on criteria. FMCG companies are expert in forecasting at different dimentions of aggregation.
So, to answer your question, the accuracy of weekly/monthly forecasts will almost always be higher than that of intraday. There will always be some exceptions but they only prove the rule.
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I would say daily/weekly timeframes are generally more predictable than very short-term intraday movements because there is less market noise. For stocks, large caps are usually better for technical analysis because they have higher liquidity and cleaner price movements. Midcaps can give bigger moves, but they can also be more volatile and less predictable. Personally, I’d start with liquid large caps on higher timeframes and then test the strategy with data.
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Totally agree…daily/weekly charts give a much better idea of the overall trend. I also usually look at the 1H chart to get a sense of the short-term trend and structure.
I also keep the 50 and 200 EMA on the chart. They give me a couple of extra reference points when I’m looking for confirmation.
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Predictors are like astrologers. They never make it to the top of the ladder.
Become a systems man. System creators do make it to the top.
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