I wanted to know meaning of this.
Underlying Price Increase, Futures OI next month Series Increase, But Next Month Futures Price is less than Underlying Price. Total OI change current and next month is Positive. Cost of Carry is Negative.
I wanted to know meaning of this.
Underlying Price Increase, Futures OI next month Series Increase, But Next Month Futures Price is less than Underlying Price. Total OI change current and next month is Positive. Cost of Carry is Negative.
Check this post and this module on understanding options trading on Varsity.
First thing to remember is that when OI goes up, for every long there is a new short added as well, and vice versa.
If price is going up with open interest increase, it means there are new positions getting added by both longs and shorts.
If price is going up with decrease in open interest, it means positions are getting wound down - media pushes this as short covering. But what needs to be understood is that for every short being covered, there is also a long position being covered. Since market is going up, shorts are losing money and covering positions, hence the odds of the stock going up is higher is more.
But to be very honest, I don't know if you should give too much weight to this data unless you see substantial increase/decrease in OI.
What I have understood is, this stock is bullish with strong rollovers, prices is going up due to short covering. So it is Fresh Long.
edited again on 23 Oct 2016.
after seeing the news of IDEA profit going to be down by about 40%. I now understand that it is not fresh long , but fresh short. recent spike in price may be playing trap retailers, or someone wanted to sell high.
conclusion : when Futures is trading less than Spot price then it is going to fall in the near future.