I reached the same conclusion when I was an “investor” in equities, with limited capital.
My thinking went like “Even if I take Warren Buffet’s returns and apply it to my portfolio… I will be in my 70’s before anything meaningful is generated.”
So I pivoted and started researching F&O, and never looked back… I guess if you reach really high portfolio sizes, you’ll have no option but to revert back to equities, but that would be a nice problem to have…
The one thing that your post doesn’t list is numbers.
It seems more of anecdotal evidence.
I heard from this person, they couldn’t make it.
You are NOT completely wrong.
It’s said 90-95% entering the markets end up losing money.
So you have not stated the views of the remaining 5-10%.
Regarding Capital.
You are right again about having Capital makes things easier.
But that doesn’t mean a person entering with BIG money will make money.
Most likely they will lose BIG Money.
5Lacs is fine capital if you are day trading or swing trading.
If you are ‘investing’ then you have to wait a few decades to see results.
After 5 years of studying, investing, research & analysis …
These last 5 years had the mother of all bull markets.
Even the Crypto guys made money …
the notion of ‘you can earn crores if you just do what rakesh/dolly did’ is not true.
Because you are doing it after they already did it ?
You are entering months after they bought a stock
What am I doing ?
This is the best solution for you.
Since it seems you were looking to make money without putting in the due efforts and the time.
It used to be 600 hours per year.
That’s 12 hours per week ?
We are playing the toughest game with the smartest minds in the world. They are at it 18-20 hours Daily.
12 hours per week for how many years ? In 2-3 years at that rate one would probably pick up a basic understanding of the markets, instruments, segments etc.
Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying you didn’t do anything,
Just that most people underestimate the amount of time and effort it can take.
RJ or Warren Buffett are a product of years even decades of efforts.
Most people who are successful in this game won’t reach the level of RJ and WB.
And these successful people are among the 5-10% that actually make money from the markets.
They spend hours daily reading about markets, pouring over charts, trying to extract every cent from the market.
And they do it for years. Still don’t become RJ or Buffett.
Another thing about RJ and WB.
They probably didn’t have a back up plan.
They probably wanted to do this till they figured it out.
Looking at their lifestyle ( especially WB ) I don’t think it was only about money for them.
The game is not to make millions.
The game is to make money consistently from the markets. Till it scales up.
It’s possible as people have stated in their replies to you.
Good Luck in your future endeavors.
You are right.
Warren Buffet started investing around 11
He made his first Million at the age of 30.
First Billion at the age of 56.
But then markets and opportunities were lot different then from what we have now.
Jim Simmons of Ren Tech can be a good inspiration instead for CAGR.
He too is one fantastic outlier.
In the end one should do what works for them, and as per their life plans.
Mrkt is very simple bus jst pehle pata lag jana chahiye kaunsa stock upar jayega kaunsa neeche n kaunsa sideways rehaega
“ As Edward O. Thorp writes in A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market , “Warren… started his first investment partnership, Buffett Associates, Ltd., in 1956 at the age of 25 with $100,100. He told me with a laugh that the $100 was his contribution. After starting ten more partnerships he merged them all into Buffett Partnership, Ltd., early in 1962.”
From https://www.valueresearchonline.com/stories/33717/the-secrets-of-buffett-s-success/
Converting 1956 dollars a to 2023 dollars… is $1.1M, from Value of 1956 US Dollars today - Inflation Calculator
In 2023, if you have INR 8,000 and get people to invest the rest INR 9 crores, AND you are Warren Buffet, you can make money investing in equities 
Bruh. i admire your passion for writing a reply longer than the post.
please note, my original post was about investing, not trading. 
(it was edited).
but, my observations apply to trading as well.
“…It seems more of anecdotal evidence…”
I provided evidence in replies. 
“…These last 5 years had the mother of all bull markets…”
and yet the best returns i have observed is very underwhelming.
I agree, its not a big enough pool, its just group of 10k investors. even if you look at broader market, the best returns i observed are from bajaj finance, and it was on my radar and i invested in it. but given my principles of diversification, i could invest only part of my capital and not go all in. so back to my original point. my chances of doing multi bagger is way less than my chances of catching a falling knife.
“…Because you are doing it after they already did it ?..”
I know it sounds odd, but this is a sound strategy and actually worked well in US markets
When warren buffet started buying apple, the price was 98$. he steadily bought apple until 2020.
So, even if i bought buffet’s pick 30 days after revealation, i would have made decent money up until now. 16% pa. Without spending a single minute of my own time.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala bought titan at 6rupees. Titan did not become a multi bagger until 2010s.
So plenty of time to buy in between. you will not get exact returns as them but close enough.
The problem now with indian investors is, most of the picks by bigwigs are smallcaps and they do upper circuit for months after the news becomes public that some bigshot has bought stake.
So its impossible to replicate this strategy and make money in 2023.
We are playing the toughest game with the smartest minds in the world. They are at it 18-20 hours Daily.
and thats my point. i can spend my time more productively and make more money else where.
why bother with researching & investing.
I even shared my formula.
“…In 2-3 years at that rate one would probably pick up a basic…”
I did this for 5 years, i am well versed with basics.
I even read from psychology perspective.
But i am not as good as CA’s, who cook books. i am not as good as quants who do this as a career.
Hence my withdrawl from the field because i found bettwe way of doing money.
*"… RJ or Warren Buffett are a product of years even decades of efforts…"
I disagree with ‘born genius’ hypothesis.
I agree they do things differently.
RJ is notorious for insider buying/selling in his intial days, thats how he made money and became very big.
once he became big fish, he started moving the price with his name itself.
He did pick good companies, but he made good money because of the size of his outsized bets. (ex: titan).
Warren Buffet is very similar. He is son of senator and had lot of connections.
The image of being a child genius is cooked by media.
He was late to tech scene investing by 2 decades.
All his initial money was made from investing in infra/railroads/petroleum, where he used his father’s connections and money to make outsized bets.
The only thing they did very well, riding the winners.
but behind the scenes, its the insider info that helped them a lot to build initial capital.
“The game is to make money consistently from the markets. Till it scales up.”
This is a myth sold by financial magazines/blogs/fund houses to keep you hooked.
My EPF returned better than my stocks/MFs/trading combined.
Of all the 10k people i polled/discussed, only 5 people were profitable in trading.
only 30% investors made money better than their EPF.
Have you ever wondered why FundHouses never publish data about how profitable their investors are?
Or How much profits they have generated?
That alone speaks volumes about state of affairs about investing in general.
Thanks for taking time in sharing your thoughts
Its really simple.
buy low. sell high
i dont know why people dont know it.
A well hidden fact to maintain the image of ‘stock picking genius’ is
warren buffet had lot of support from his father (who is a politician) and lot of connections.
All WB’s connections were useless post 2000. it is evident from the fact that he missed tech stocks.
He was 2 decades late when WB started buying apple in 2016.
WB is better than me obviously, but not as good as people thing he is.
There is something you need to know. Warren Buffett would have missed the tech rally, he was late getting into apple. And he openly admitted he did not understand amazon.
His greatest quality is what he did in bear cycles not bull runs. Period.
And that is genius to me. How people handle losing money is what makes them a winner.
Every other guy would have made money between 2020 april to 2021. How many of them you know made money in 2022?
This is what i have to say for you:-
Yes, its actively difficult to beat index with actively trading stocks. But that’s not the point here. F & O are instruments specially designed for trading. There is leverage there. That should be used than cash market. That’s what I feel.
Drawing your own portfolio of individual stocks for investment and expecting that to beat index is quite hard. There is nothing wrong here. So many fund managers have failed beating index. My suggestion to you is see investment as paper assets to hold , to protect yourself from inflation and get some upside than to actively invest stocks to make money. Remember investing is defense maneuver while trading is offensive maneuver. In investing we are protecting our Purchasing power from central bank i.e inflation and get some upside while trading we are trying to extract money from this multi billion dollar market .
time is money. figuring out trading takes time, there are steps, tests and mindset shift. You become the product, as always any venture has ramp up time. It doesn’t come immediately to everyone, especially the psychology shift is pure mindfuck. If you are actively trying to be profitable trader then you need to revisit a lot of things you have done in the past and analyze well. the way you have written is lot of emotional stuff which I sympathize but you need to ask yourself some questions clearly like whether you are trading or investing, if trading then ask yourself did you take steps, do RCA. And it doesn’t always have to be like sitting infront of computer chasing every candle of market open days of a year. getting gains Llittle more than FD
& beating index fund automatically makes you good trader.
You can skip trading but not investment. There is no such thing as inflationary proof investment at all. Real estate on the whole is a lousy investment. liquidity is worse and is not same everywhere. Again there it might be good if you have experience and know what you are doing. But it looks like you taken step in unknown place again. Rental yields are all terrible everywhere for all I know. There is a significant expense ratio when it comes to real estate including maintenance. And remember if business is not profitable(interest rate are high, ppl don’t spend) then shops close down and vacate, there is lot of competition too finding tenants(as they can always find better options surrounding). And I am sure most of you are going to use leverage(debt) in commercial real estate, there will be many things here like what are you gonna do if debt is not being able to service(EMI not managed), what if one person is not able to service the debt, how to handle tenant’s complaint & maintenance and important factor is when you involve money with your friends, it can be very very hard because betrayals are common, people can walk away. Its another learning curve for you.
As far as investment is concerned, have a portfolio of index, gold and maybe debt. Its upto you whether you want buy ETF or do SIP. But more than anything being consistent and having discipline matters over everything. people don’t sit everyday infront of computer for investment for all I know.
This is what I would say chasing paychecks. Its great chasing paychecks till you hit the 20% slabs, after that it totally sucks and quite inefficient. Its 1000 times far worse if you have a car & bike because now you pay direct taxes and indirect tax via petrol. You cant write off business expenses unlike trading. Remember you made this money exchanging time. It looks good in short term but this wont be forever especially this is what sets off people to work till 60.
The way people get rich & wealthy is that they have an active income for stability and save time, use that time for any productive passive income venture like trading, freelance photography, youtube, ticktok, e-commerce etc and have multiple income streams along with assets. That is how they are wealthy. They don’t spend too much time with passive income venture. Figuring out these venture takes time but in long run pays lot well.
Lastly all of these require significant mindshift, even when it comes to managing your wealth or someone’s wealth or even investing and learning about asset class, portfolio management or risk management . It maybe 5 years, but I feel you haven’t made that shift yet, try to get in better headspace, read some books, there is psychology help in this forum and everywhere else on the internet. Mindset is lot important.
I think you’re right. This entire financial year i made 14%. And that too with the small account of mine. I do feel pointless.
I do buy at low to sell at high. But the problem is as soon as I buy, stock starts falling and making new lows and my low becomes the high for next few years. 
so back to my original point. my chances of doing multi bagger is way less than my chances of catching a falling knife.
Expecting returns from investing in 5 years and then saying that markets are fixed ?
Multi bagger in 5 years.
A business has to grow X * 100 times theoretically in 5 years.
Reconsider the timeframe of your expectations if you think you are not trading.
I provided evidence in replies.
You have not posted the raw data of your so called polls.
You have posted your conclusions. Which sound like anecdotal evidence.
Difference is that we all study the same data about markets. Eg Price Action.
But have varying experiences due to our analysis and inherent biases in our thinking.
Request you to post the raw data of your polls with 10k investors, so that we can all study and draw conclusions, then discuss.
I have not come across such a dataset in the Indian markets, so it will be enlightening towards understanding the mindset of the retail trader.
Rest of the points I won’t address, since you have made up your mind to move away from the ‘manipulated’ markets, I wish you all the best in life.
I would appreciate if you read my comments without projecting your own views on my conclusions.
This is my observations after participating in various stock market forums/groups, where people quick to post their wins but hide their losses, where people share their annual portfolio gains.
I am not a professional polster gathering data.
I never claimed that i wanted to get 100x in 5 years.
My claim is merely, after being in market for 5 years, i concluded that my chances of landing a multibagger is way less because of manipulative nature (cooked books, pump & dump, FOMO, falling knife, dishonest analysts) of stock market.
I did not move away from markets, i just found alternatives worthy of my time & effort and shared my thoughts.
Somehow I feel that even if I show the data, you will simply reject it.
If you are sure that its possible to make money
Feel free to share data that proves its possible to get wealthy investing.
You can show me the counter data and i would change my point of view.
For closing thoughts, I treat TA as astrology. if it works, people go gung ho. if not, people just forget and move on.
Its best example of confirmation bias out there.
This is my observations after participating in various stock market forums/groups,
Observations. Got it.
Somehow I feel that even if I show the data, you will simply reject it.
You can only know that when the data is presented.
The way you are pointing everything on the basis of data is a good thing that means you have a practical approach toward the market and life. But I will tell the main reason why you are failing. You are only trying to be an investor that’s it! You have to level up on your own that’s where your mind gets blocked. Like an example when we were in school parents taught us to get in a good college, you did but what after that? did you directly landed on a job which pays you big fat salary? NO! soon you realize you need to have a good personality, ethics and intelligence and most importantly experience to get a high paying job. Who told you all those things? You learned on your own from successful people in your circle and started to apply those tactics, with time you developed your own mindset about world and society. So in same way you have to explore , learn , adapt and make your own way in the market .I also came as an investor made 100% profit in one year at the age of 17 only invested 6k and made 6k and I was in the same where you are now but after that my real struggle started, to become a trader >INVESTOR>SWING TRADER>INTRADAY TRADER>SCALPER i came as an investor because of NEWS but you have you have to find your way otherwise there no other way . It’s your journey you have to complete it. Otherwise better leave it. Or let professionals do it.
In the spirit of the process you quoted
I have gone through the same journey you described for a successful career, i learned from my peers, superiors.
I saw them succeeding after working hard, I learned from their skills, worked in a company that was fair in rewards and recognized my contributions without any partiality.
I saw with my own eyes that the process worked for my colleagues and superiors worked for me.
The same is not true for the stock market for the following reasons.
So i focus elsewhere to make money
most of the pro traders I got to know about from twitter are surprisingly doing simplest shit you could ever imagine…when I asked about ther edge almost everyone said RM, discipline, blah blah blan…they alsl look at same chart…you bet I can draw better lines then them yet they end up being profitable while I suck my thumb out of anxiety for meeting expectations…think why?
https://twitter.com/SensibullTop20
if they can do it why can’t you
Everything is important in trading - RM, discipline, bla bla bla - but also edge. Mess up any one thing and even if you have edge, you probably wont succeed. And if you don’t have edge, any amount of discipline will do nothing other that give you psych issues. Psych issues are probably the least important ( perhaps more relevant for very active trader who trades manually). These issues dissipate once you have an edge and reasonable belief in that edge backed by data and experience and confidence in being able to adapt when needed. Even better to have multiple edges and large capital to weather future uncertainty + keep risk reasonably low. That’s what i believe is needed to be a full time trader.
this is the most important thing for influencers. Due to this bla bla bla - if they get more viewers for video, someone buys their course or even buys their blackbox algo strategy = they become a sensation.
my last comment for this thread - you need not do it because some other people are making money. Chances of succeeding in any business or job is only 5% - same is the case here
To survive in stock markets - mutual funds SIP is enough. But to create alpha the necessary homework & years of struggle has to be put in.
Its similar to the job you are doing too. You underwent an educational program from LKG to graduation or PG to get the job thats like 20 years of struggle. Dont believe when people say you got this job because of 1 niche subject you learned in Btech (The 20 years taught you discipline)
Now if I were you and had the chance to be the top 5% in the job you are doing - i would still take it ! Note: Being in the top 5% is the catch - the payoff is literally the same in all fields.
