Will Nifty witness a year ending rally like before?

Monthly returns from last 22 years show that Nov and December returns monthly wise on an average have been the highest both individually and also if we check the data based on consecutive months by far.

It might be due to what most players term as Santa rally till Christmas and Budget rally (specific to our markets)

Will we witness a similar bullish trend continue this time around or will 2022 prove to be unique as it has been so far?

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 4.44 7.02 -7.64 -7.98 -1.86 6.59 -9.42 4.6 -8.78 -7.78 8.13 -0.36
2001 8.56 -1.48 -15.04 -2 3.79 -5.14 -3.16 -1.78 -13.28 6.35 9.8 -0.76
2002 1.54 6.2 -1.09 -3.99 -5.14 2.82 -9.35 5.39 -4.7 -1.22 10.38 4.13
2003 -4.72 2.07 -8.01 -4.51 7.79 12.65 4.56 14.39 4.46 9.79 3.81 16.38
2004 -3.72 -0.52 -1.58 1.37 -17.4 1.48 8.42 -0.03 6.97 2.37 9.62 6.21
2005 -1.1 2.22 -3.21 -6.54 9.73 6.37 4.13 3.13 9.09 -8.86 11.86 6.95
2006 5.8 2.45 10.66 4.56 -13.68 1.86 0.48 8.61 5.11 4.34 5.62 0.3
2007 2.93 -8.26 2.04 6.97 5.09 0.52 4.88 -1.43 12.49 17.51 -2.34 6.52
2008 -16.31 1.67 -9.36 9.11 -5.73 -17.03 7.24 0.62 -10.06 -26.41 -4.52 7.41
2009 -2.85 -3.87 9.31 15 28.07 -3.55 8.05 0.55 9.05 -7.32 6.81 3.35
2010 -6.13 0.82 6.64 0.55 -3.63 4.45 1.04 0.65 11.62 -0.2 -2.58 4.64
2011 -10.25 -3.14 9.38 -1.44 -3.29 1.57 -2.93 -8.77 -1.15 7.76 -9.28 -4.3
2012 12.43 3.58 -1.66 -0.9 -6.17 7.2 -0.95 0.56 8.46 -1.47 4.63 0.43
2013 2.2 -5.66 -0.18 4.36 0.94 -2.4 -1.72 -4.71 4.82 9.83 -1.95 2.07
2014 -3.4 3.08 6.81 -0.12 7.97 5.28 1.44 3.02 0.13 4.49 3.2 -3.56
2015 6.35 1.06 -4.62 -3.65 3.08 -0.77 1.96 -6.58 -0.28 1.47 -1.62 0.14
2016 -4.82 -7.62 10.75 1.44 3.95 1.56 4.23 1.71 -1.99 0.17 -4.65 -0.47
2017 4.59 3.72 3.31 1.42 3.41 -1.04 5.84 -1.58 -1.3 5.59 -1.05 2.97
2018 4.72 -4.85 -3.61 6.19 -0.03 -0.2 5.99 2.85 -6.42 -4.98 4.72 -0.13
2019 -0.29 -0.36 7.7 1.07 1.49 -1.12 -5.69 -0.85 4.09 3.51 1.5 0.93
2020 -1.7 -6.36 -23.25 14.68 -2.84 7.53 7.49 2.84 1.22 3.51 11.39 7.81
2021 -2.48 6.56 1.11 -0.41 6.5 0.89 0.26 8.69 2.77 0.37 -3.89 2.18
2022 -0.09 -3.46 4.33 -2.07 -3.03 -4.85 8.73 3.5 -3.75 5.37
Average -0.19 -0.22 -0.31 1.44 0.83 1.07 1.81 1.54 1.24 1.05 2.71 2.86

Source : Primeinvestor

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Check out this great video on seasonality in Trading by @KirubaKaran

Indian index charts on Monthly look very bullish to me, even when adjusted to USD. But it will resolve in monthly ( and can always fail…).
Day to day buying momentum in lower timeframes only seems to happen after falls these days and not on Breakout.


As a counter to above, the guy i learned trading from, has a bearish view on US stocks for next few years. One of the data points is that US yields are inverted and this has generally preceded difficult times for the market. Good time to be prepared and have cash in hand to buy later.

Indian yields are not inverted and i don’t have data nor have done any work on this myself. How has US yield inversion impacted India in past? What about Indian yield inversion ? These things might be interesting to check.

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Will still say the same. But now it looks closer than it was when I posted this.

I’m very new to trading but, i don’t think the Indian markets are going to slow down. There is going to be a good rally.

Currently there seems to be nothing that will be able to stop the momentum of nifty and banknifty. If the indices stay their course, we can expect to see new ATHs before the year end. That being said, inflation and interest rates still remain a concern. The fed funds terminal rate has now been increased to 5% from earlier 4.25-4.5%.

Movement seems to be pending in midcaps and small caps.

I’m personally expecting a outperformance over headline indices in the coming months

Underperformance continues

On a day like today, midcaps are only 0.32%

Market would need broader markets to perform if it has to breach ATHs in a durable way