You also stuck with nifty 18000?

General
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A friend of mine couldn’t stop talking about Nifty 12,000 back in late 2020.
After the US elections, the index crossed that level, and he just froze, convinced it was “too high.” He booked profits early, missed the rally, and waited for a dip that never came.

Fast forward, in late 2023, another friend was anchored to 18,000.
Nifty had crossed 18,600, and he kept saying, “Let it come back to 18k, then I’ll buy.”
He’s still waiting.

Now in 2024, I know someone is stuck on 21,000.
After the recent breakout post-tariff announcements, his mental reference point hasn’t moved. Despite new highs, he’s anchored, and it’s costing him.

This is anchoring bias a cognitive trap where our minds fixate on a specific number (like an index level, price, or valuation), and it clouds our judgment.
We treat that level like an absolute truth, even when the market has moved on.

In trading, anchoring can make you:

  • Miss opportunities
  • Enter or exit too early
  • Ignore current data because you’re clinging to old levels

Here’s the truth markets evolve, but our minds often don’t.
Anchoring feels safe. But safety isn’t profitable.

If you find yourself thinking, “I’ll wait for it to come back to X,” ask yourself —
Are you trading the market or your memory?

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Are you friends long term investors or short term traders, @niftymonk ? :smiley:

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Mostly they are confused :joy:. They continue there short term trading with other BIASES :laughing:. But they get anchored to the past levels and unable to invest for long term.

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12K to 18K! Sure sounds yummy!
:yum: NIFTY! Now with 50% Extra!

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While there maybe some debate about
whether the “Traders :slightly_smiling_face:” and “Investors :slightly_smiling_face:” are mis-labelled above,
i would think that there is no doubt about the “Confused :cry:” majority.

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I too know someone who is stuck at 19600. :smiling_face_with_tear::smiling_face_with_tear::smiling_face_with_tear:
It’s hard for him to believe that we may not get that level easily. Every time there is 3 percent drop in nifty he keeps sending me msgs on WhatsApp and then after we rebound he disappears.
Also I am stuck at 23500. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

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I’ll come back to this thread when NIfty touches 12k :smiley: bookmarked!

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If there any particular reason why you think nifty will go to 12k? Is there some unfilled gap? :sweat_smile:

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:joy: i’m just a newbee learning options. that gap is everywhere internationally. btw sensex fell 15% from sep 24’ to mar 25’… even if it goes down its going to be a slow murder no one will notice

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I recently learnt around this. If the gaps don’t get filled, they just move up to another level.

Inflation, rupee, vibes… Some combined economics…i dunno :sweat_smile:

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But most TA guys wait for gaps to be filed. Apparently, this friend of mine feels there is some huge gap around 19600 levels. He is sure it will come back there. It’s just that he is not giving timeframe for the same. So there is a possibility that he will be right some day. :grimacing:

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So as per your curve, loss are transfer from “short term traders” to " Long Term Investors " in other words Long term Investors are financiers of the Traders :slightly_smiling_face:

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The same reason you thought it’ll take a break around 24200 levels a while back. Some say it’s guessing. Some say it’s TA. TA is just a fancy term for someone’s guess. I would say you’re using your own version of TA to make guesses.

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This this this. :saluting_face:

May be unknowingly. I would still call it random guess.

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Is it a typo? 19500 or 19600? Is there any history behind this target :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

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Well. It’s the way you wanna read it. Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder. :smiling_face_with_three_hearts:

Sometimes you know some letter are jumbled up in an abusive word just to censor it. :grimacing:

19600 has better probability of occurrence than 19500. So I think my WhatsApp friend has better chance. :sweat_smile:
Now this post getting flagged is inevitable. :cry::cry::cry::cry:

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Do you wanted to say that someone fancy or guess goes wrong , and they are saying its TA or point to TA

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Placing an ATO at 19600 :writing_hand::spiral_notepad::face_with_monocle:

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After Nifty touched 21000, my friend thought that was the top. From that moment, he only shared news that said market will fall. He ignored all good signs and kept saying “FIIs are selling” or “valuations are too high.” This is called confirmation bias.

When you believe something, your brain starts picking only things that support it and ignores everything else. In trading, this makes you miss the truth. You are not researching, you are just protecting your own ego.

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I know. I get that a lot. :hugs:

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There is a lot of people who started trading crypto since pandemic, I mean they directly went into crypto. I certainly believe a part of that crowd has come to equity space trying to trade same way like crypto and are quite confused.

And ohh btw crypto world is exactly as they say expecting price levels, they also expect market to fall 20% as well . That’s just average in crypto world :rofl:

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