Big difference between 50% per year and 3-4% month after month which he indicated. But yeah, probably on average makes sense. So some months, will be negative. A very high win rate, say > 90% is more likely to be very consistent but as a tradeoff some day a bomb will probably blow up wiping out decent portion of profits. Else mortals have to live with ups and downs.
Also, Indian markets do seem to give higher returns. 50% avg year on year would probably be too much for more developed markets which are much more competitive. Eventually this will happen in India too probably ( but hopefully not too soon). Even Decent capital with 20% compounded for 20 years = Rich.
Anyway, i am not into options and i have my own way of doing things and if can be that consistent then good for him, no issues.
There were no margin benefits for iron condors or hedged positions before 2020 June in India.
So, it is surprising that iron condors on Nifty gives 3.5% returns, each month. It could be possible only if he sold strikes that are too close to the money, considering the low premiums on Nifty.
In one of his older posts, he mentioned that he does not trade much on Nifty. Because that is very popular among traders and he likes something that is not popular.
Equity fund, ETF etc have a haircut. It doesn’t seem to be factored into the return calculations.
There is no one single strategy which can continue to make you money under all market conditions. You will need to tweak you existing strategies or you might need to change strategies when need be in order to make sure that you are earning profit.
Disclaimer: Securities Market is subject to Market Risks, please consult your Certified Financial Advisor before investing
It’s lot easier to understand with the paid version of sensibull , very to explain using graphs. I spent a year forward testing all the butterfly, iron candor , put call ratio systems with paid version of sensibull.
Ignore bear and bull spreads, naked Option selling, they are essentially going long or short.
So there are two systems where you
a.) you make money if price remains inside a zone. (Iron Candor)
b.) You make money any direction if price doesn’t remain inside a specific zone.(inverse butter fly, put call ratio)
So in both of these systems your losses are defined and profit is defined too.
I have tested both of the system. The thing is you are risking 10 to 20% more for each trade to get 2% return. If you take iron candor the wider the iron corridor so are chances prices will remain inside and you can make profit at option expiry. Wider the corridor more , more is margin and risk. If its American type expiry, you have an option of collecting just time value decay(theta) after few days entry and exit the entire position before expiry(provided price is bouncing within that corridor). This works only in dead side ways choppy market. So where are you gonna be profitable for last 10 years with this strategy that too monthly options with S & P 500 index always trending
Its not possible. Even if you have large, very large capital and went crazy to deploy wide iron candor to buy tops and bottom of option chain itself. That definitely wont save you from crash 2020
And he says he is regularly trading full time and this is not for people with job. To deploy something like this you only need 5 mins a day in a month just to place orders for monthly options. Sensibull has made it even easier. So what the hell is he trading day in and day out looking at screens for ?, I don’t buy it. It took me a year testing all these because you only know the result at the end of option expiry date based on where price is . Its not like trading lower timeframes where you know profit or loss immediately after few minutes.
The only good here is no technicals, no fundamentals, nothing needed. If your understanding of options is solid you can even put orders looking at option chain no need of sensibull or any tool as such. The reason I abandoned this is because markets trends like anything and not being to participate and get those extra pips seems lame. especially risking defined 10 to 20% losses over a 2% return.
So if he has used this system, this is how trading history would look like
@raoawesome apart from monthly iron condor - i have some other trade in india and other country
in india i am doing one intraday strategy - initial capital is 5 lakhs now its turned to 53 lakhs if you believe or not i dont know - but this is one of my strategy –
every day is a special day for me - this strategy is giving minimum 42 k per month and see the corona period i make big returns
dont ask strategy detail and other thing - i will never disclose here - because i never sell anything here
you asked what i am doing every day - this is one in india , europe and USA - i have different country trades also . my computer will wake up @ 5 am and goimg to sleep @12.30 Am midnight
not even a single month i am not in loss - here lot of adjustment the system will do and system will give idea
in usa and europe the strategy is diffrent - but i like to trade in USA s&p 500 onlly - because good premium - dollar based profit - and highly liquid option and margin is based on risk only
the same strategy i a using in USA S&P 500 index
this is my own python written strategy - adjustment everything return in python programming laguage - its deployed in india , europe , and usa- there is lot of secret inside the strategy thats keep me in profit on long time - then what we need
@SMIFS_LIMITED this is my strategy its will make money in all market condition — it is not strategy to make money - i will try to make any strategy to make money in my account
even the strategy went wrong - i will take them in to profit - i like challenge
@SpacemanSpiff you know most of my strategy made 100% return , above post is returning 100% eve year , but you people will never believe - so only i keep my profit thing capped @ 50%-
this is my hardwork result in 10+ years sitting and learned in the market -
so if win are 14 and losses are 10. Your winrate = 14/(14+10) *100 = 58%. So its not a perfect system as you claim. You had drawdown as your dashboard says. So there are no 0 losses but less losses.
43,44,075 / 1,00,00,000 * 100 = 43% (matches with your winning probability in the screen, the one I marked)
years:-
2017 - 2022 = 5 years
profit per year:-
43/ 5 = 8.6 % a year
I appreciate this however. You have insane level of discipline to remain in this market and trade every day. If I had 1cr and S & P 500 gave 10% a year just by simply doing nothing. I would take that and same my time.
Ya boss your maths is so good
If win ratio comparing , see if I loss may be 18 k if I win 60 +k
In 5 lakhs monthly 42 k profit means what is the percentage tell me ,
Ok leave it , in this strategy I am making 80 to 100 % every year capital 5 lakh profit 4 lakhs means in your place is 8 %
Win prob, win loss ratio seem within reason on initial look.
Great equity curve man, keep it up. You don’t need anyone’s acknowledgement and certainly don’t need to publish pnl numbers - but again if true, what you can achieve is based on your skillset. It might seem easy to you but it wont be for others. Ultimately, networth increase while keeping risk control is all that matters. If you have a curve like that from US markets over 10 years, then perhaps you can be published in market wizards too. Keep compounding.
I wont change my belief about inevitability and acceptance of drawdown so easily until i really see and understand the numbers for myself ( not yours … ) but that hardly matters. I am ok with what i can manage and my beliefs are my own and do not impact you. Good luck.
From your graph your average profit is 1,572 per trade as your dashboard says. Your profit is not 42k per month. Even there are days of inactivity. Its very hard for me to say.
Now you said 5 lakhs initial capital but the volume of trade you take is more than 5 lakh(its impossible to trade same volume after a drawdown), essentially means you are using leverage whether you know or not. I explained leverage here
So If you used 5 lakhs to trade a volume of 1 cr assuming. You leverage is 1:20 which is not bad.
So with 8% profit that becomes profit 8*20 = 160% . So what you says adds up only.
I hope this makes sense to you. Either way appreciate the insane discipline and having control over leverage and being consistent.
only thing i thought scam was you mentioned you never had any loss like every trade you took was profit and you made 100+% without leverage
@raoawesome I got it your point , I will never take to much thing into my brain , I deployed 5 lakhs every month 42 k yearly 4or 5 lakhs it’s means 100 % for me ,
I have MTM loss , but I will profit on every month in all strategy ,
I am actually more interested how you are able to bring that money to india from TD ameritrade and other brokers & markets not affiliated to SEBI or India. Years ago Even I thought of trading in etoro, TD ameritrade , fxcm , iqoption because of leverage and dollars. But the only safe route was converting it into bitcoin and use P2P to bring that money back to account in india.
Do you use your bro’s account to transfer money? Nobody asks in his home country about this income going into his foreign bank account or no one in Income tax department asks all these ?
Note: wont give your name to Income tax department. Cross my hearts . I dont know how much of this is grey or would land you into trouble discussing this in forum.
You mentioned you don’t know anything or any technicals. What I got hooked was, you have a simple strategy which prints money without any loss every month.
Now, you write pythons, alarms to wake you up to trade foreign exchanges.
You keep unfolding more and more things. I am all ears, so eager to read this section.
. I dont know how much of this is grey or would land you into trouble discussing this in forum.