We may not be affected too much by Recent surge in crude oil
Contrary to the popular belief, It seems that we may not be affected too much by the recent gigantic spike in Crude oil. With Crude oil correcting more than 30% from its peak and stabilizing near 100$ per barrel, We may get further discount of 20-25% from Russia. thereby effectively buying crude at 75-80$ per barrel.
Crude Oil Imports - How much do we buy from Russia currently?
We import 80% of our crude oil requirement and out of that 80%, we used to buy only 2-3% from Russia . With potential discount being offered by Russia, 2-3% is surely bound to go up. How much - needs to be seen though.
Our Daily Consumption is nearly 4.4 Million Barrels.
It needs to be seen whether India will take the bold step of buying russian oil (possibly trading in Rupee - ruble mechanism keeping Yuan as reference !! ) considering the sanctions rest of the world is imposing on russia and its partners.
What’s in our favour here ?
One thing in our favour though is, US’s allies esp EU cant afford to avoid russian oil and gas currently and therefore, we may not be adversely impacted with any sanctions or restrictions.
If we are buying, it would be like when my neighbor’s house is on fire, I am scouting around the premises looking for what to buy from them. It may be perfectly fine with few and not so for others.
In stock market, Vedanta tried something similar tried to delist at 87.50 during the peak of Corona. The argument was “cash is king” and the promoter is making way so that small investors can exit. Today the market price is 361 and rising.
Discl: Each one to their own. Need to do what is right and not everything is commercial all the time. People should remember, the equation can change anytime and we could be on the receiving end of hardship. Still remember the vivid pics of the deadly second wave of Corona, where hospitals were runing short of oxygen, dead bodies lying on the morgue/hospital floors and crematorium could not handle the incoming bodies. The world rallied and came together to help us.
Also, when i turned kill switch on, it shows deactivated tag. And BCD is disabled error still shows. Please tell how it works. For reference, i turned on, to a status similar to all other segments which are already active…
It’s a tricky yet an interesting situation to be in. (with risk of potential sanctions from west but us getting cheaper oil along with payment mechanism using rupee and ruble)
Urals oil is kind of different as it is sticky and is bit inferior when compared to the oil that we get from western Asia.
So, yeah, it will result in an increase in the cost of refining the crude for us but still its a good deal and overall costs vl b lower.
I think we may take the offer this time around. Our country cant afford it for too long if crude remains above 100$.
Fully agree with you. Every effort should be done to find alternative source of energy like moving to electric vehicles. Indian Railways should ensure that 100% of the network is electrified and not to run diesel locomotives on select section. Every household should have an induction stove apart from the traditional gas stoves. This too might reduce the dependence on fossil fuel. We are stuck between the devil and the deep sea. This is the not the first time this is happening and hence Government should fast track alternate source of energy for transportation.
Switching to Electric might not solve ournenergy problem at all… at least for current decade.
More than 50% our Electricity Generation is coal based and for past few months we are seeing the Coal Cruch… Forget increasing Thermal Power.
In addition considering the outcome of COP26, carbon neutrality is decades away.
So basically a quick switch from Petro to Electricity is essentially a switch from Crude to Coal and lack both of these in terms of quality and quantity.
So if everyone switch to Electricity for their energy need lile for cooking, only per Unit Price of Electricity will up benefittimg no one and collapsing poor peoples monthly budget.
Also seeing the shift away from Petro to Electricity, Govt will tax it to gain from it. So unless we have big share of eelctricity from Renew. Sources switching to Electricity is not a prudent option.
Alternative to Diesel Locos is work in Progress few lines are being electrified partially…
A better alternative as per understanding is focus better and punctual public transport system with fleets of Electric Buses with renewable powered charging stations.
Any fast tracking will have a time horizon of at least a decade if not one and half decade for completion…
So we have to buy Russian Crude if they are offering any discount but govt won’t buy it heavily…
Nooo . These type of sad vibes harm The Plan. There is another Systemic™ way to think about this issue. In trying to save out a few coins we may lose out on the Bank. A Solar blessed nation like India shouldn’t think twice about being pioneers in the electrification game. Not only that it should actually go ahead and innovate in this area.
When thinking about Solar energy there is a tendency to think that what the tech for it has been for the last 20 years would remain pretty much the same for the next 20 years with some minor changes. But as we speak some good labcoat players are doing some variation of Moore’s Law on the harnessing capabilities. But speeding this up is only possible if we start mass adopting what we have with us now, right now. This in turn shall give incentive for everyone to speedrun through the whole process.
Zoomer crying about Solar is similar to telling someone that lifting small weights isn’t going to help, wait till your muscle grows, and lift very heavy weights then. You would only get those ig muscles if you start lifting whatever you can-now. (Don’t trust me on this, I don’t lift anything at all and don’t care to.) So anyway… as I was saying… What comes later is the outcome of now. And India has faced this problem of leapfrogging technological eras multiple times in history. We go straight from the oldest to the newest available tech, without doing leg days in the middle and then face scaling issues later and are dependent on sus nations.
Whenever talking about energy future, its best to rep every source as equally important and urgent. More Oil, Solar farms so large that they blot out the Sun (!?). Thorium powered Nuclear Plants that make use of all that sweet Thorium we got. Where its windy, we put up windmills etc.
India has this golden chance to be an S-tier energy player. This is our game to lose from hereon. COP26, Forever21 no one gives a crap about all that. We need energy… Just because. We will figure out what to do with it later.
For the math related to this, please find your nearest centrist nerd and consult.
My intention was not to give bad vibes… I was just stating our political and administrative system’s ability to timely execution of plan when it comes to subjects like this(or Education… totally unrelated but saying). And 2ndlyI was saying that it will take time till we build enough Renewable (esp Solar) Power that take burden off the Coal Power and we can safely start shutting down those plants.
The with this that some reason unknown to me, whenever it comes to Solar Parks or Wind Mills our govt’s decision making ability froze instantly and they either just scale down the project or delay it. I said quick switch will hurt because I fear that our policymaker would just greenwash us and don’t build anything or enough and then either hit us with taxes when we do shift to Renewable Sources. All the enthusiasm that govt is showing in Renew Energy is just to save Petro Dollars not they suddenly care for Environment. Hence for dealing with current oil price problem, I said Buy Russian OIl Heavily at discount… May be and just may be govt might pass on the discount in fuel prices to consumer (after recouping Election Price Freeze Loses).
I live in Coastal Area of Maharashtra and here there are many places where one can build solar parks over vast empty lands or install wind mills in the Coast Area (where Ministers build big resorts), Hills on the shore (where again our govt ex-CMs & Ministers build big many star hotels) or they want to spent big in the water. But instead we just have 2 Wind Mill Projects and Small Arrays of Solar Panels (Port Dept has install array of few kWs for their own use near Light House in Ratnagiri and few Pvt Companies are doing the same but at very small scale) here and there…
One good thing that I see is Electrification of Konkan Railway has been completed till Ratnagiri (hence I said work in Progress).
So my cynical view is not because I don’t have faith in Technology or Science… Absolutely not… If used correctly and fast tracked science can and will boost these efforts in big way…
But I have totally lost my faith in my Politicians (both State and Union)…
Beside they are busy in bringing more Petrochemical Projects in our neighborhood read bout it here which I and many locals strongly dislike and oppose… They are trying to bring World Biggest Refinery here but no single word about any future Solar Park Project or Wind Mill or Sea-Tide Powered Projects…
+1. In saying all this, not for a second am I thinking that powers that be will actually do any of this. We are most probably ran through and ngmi. But this is the only way there is to become S-tier. Every other position is losing.
If it can’t happen from top-down then it is now incumbent on the people to plead as vehemently in front of energy departments of every city as they do for saving 12 trees in the middle of nowhere. Failing to do so we would lose both the 12 trees and everything else along with it.
If even that can’t happen. Then let’s wait for our Supreme Defacto Moshtu Knowledgeable Leader France to tell us how to use the Sun from its moist, cold and idyllic locales.
What S-Tier Energy Producer? I really don’t know…
I read it as Big Producer… Is this another jargon/terminology that businesses use in their presentations like Big Four, Industrial Revolution 4.0 etc? Enlighten me…
. These type of sad vibes harm The Plan. There is another Systemic™ way to think about this issue. In trying to save out a few coins we may lose out on the Bank. A Solar blessed nation like India shouldn’t think twice about being pioneers in the electrification game. Not only that it should actually go ahead and innovate in this area.
ig muscles if you start lifting whatever you can-now. (Don’t trust me on this, I don’t lift anything at all and don’t care to.) So anyway… as I was saying… What comes later is the outcome of now. And India has faced this problem of leapfrogging technological eras multiple times in history. We go straight from the oldest to the newest available tech, without doing leg days in the middle and then face scaling issues later and are dependent on sus nations.
