The fact that Trump’s whimsical words can cause the market value to increase by trillions of dollars all over the world is an exploitation of the most dangerous bug in market capitalism, which could mean that if he gets serious, he could become an insider and take all the world’s wealth to America!
In fact, I think this is an unforgivable market manipulation that deserves 300 years in prison. If this were allowed to continue, we would end up in a world where the country with the most violence and economic power would be able to use the market to take everything from other countries.
Any views on this? BTW people who are long must be facing anxiety right and people who are short must be already dead. Just kidding.
a. the entire process of exploitation has been nicely whitewashed using abstract financial instruments,
and profits are cleanly de-linked from the associated exploitation/oppression with several layers in between.
b. and while the distribution of the pie has been becoming even more inequitable/lopsided/extreme,
there have been some real technology/productivity improvements
that have led to an increase in the size of the overall pie.
This has helped hide the underlying ongoing economic exploitation to a certain extent.
There is no real reason for anxiety since nothing has really changed.
Sure, a subset of folks who “were long”, weren’t really long, but just thought that they were,
and were happy to play along
since there existed continuous short-term gains to be had as well.
How to trade this kind of market ?
Look at data in his last term, he used to tweet a lot from what i remember and that would move prices.
For me, it was still normal, I just look at 10+ years of data and if something works, it will hopefully work in future too.
Professional traders don’t trade like that, long term success requires reasonable risk management.
Every trade is just a trade and has a high enough chance of failure. So 1 trade or series of trades should not cause anxiety ( not that much anyway) and wont kill you. If 1 trade can kill you, then you will be dead soon enough. Markets are efficient that way.
April for me is slightly negative, but its hardly anything and 1 good day could get over it. Market moves are normal imo. Volatility has its own cycles. Hopefully bottom is done and perhaps focus on china could be good for india long term, who knows. As long as we don’t have wars.
Haha It’s true when a single tweet can shift trillions in market cap, we’re not in a textbook economy anymore, we’re in “Econotainment.”
But let’s not panic just yet market psychology has always been… let’s say “emotionally flexible.”
Calling it a bug in capitalism might be fair, though someone definitely installed it as a feature . Still, before we hand out 300-year sentences, let’s remember: markets react to uncertainty, and few things are more uncertain than politics on Twitter!
As for longs and shorts—thoughts and prayers to both.
Not a bad time to be option seller.
When ever I feel angst, I look for Nilesh Shah (Kotak) and Shankar naren (ICICI) interviews, their words calm me down.
That said, short term anything can happen and long term returns are probably going to be more muted vs last few years after covid. And smaller caps probably are more dangerous to hold.
Best balm for long term investors is to manage diversification/allocation and stop looking at the market daily. Waste of time and creates a diarrhea of stupid emotions.
@cvs I understand that you hold significant expertise in Bonds.Planing to take a dip into this area, with a certain percentage of my investment, and aim to explore more about it this weekend. Could you provide some starter advice or recommendations?
It’s nice and a bit funny too, to see how you started, especially because of how things turned out in the end.
What you initially considered to be safe investment, wasn’t safe really, because of the everything that was happening with NBFC or with the borrower in particular.
If someone were to post, somthing similiar to what you posted back then, you might be among the first ones to constructively criticize their choice or action, while also being blunt at it, and throw a bunch of jargons,theories, references and links, to drive the point.
Happy to see how you have evolved, as now, you try to question some people’s risky or uninformed choices, like how _neha1101 and _Akash_Shah did that for you in that thread.
I was thinking of the switch from
nations forming alliances and waging physical battles on the global stage (WW1, WW2)
to waging financial and cultural battles on a ongoing basis.
Yes. Open secret that almost everyone has such a start.
And most lose money initially to learn.
I was “lucky” enough to not have lost money explcitly to learn early-on. (not counting notional-losses of any opportunities that i passed upon)
I continue to believe that a lot of folks think along these lines,
but most don’t end-up being blunt publicly
a. either out of politeness
b. or due to the amount of time/effort it takes to carefully pen-down and defend unpopular opinions.
I do it, as i find that it saves a lot of time for everyone involved, in the long run.
It’s true when a single tweet can shift trillions in market cap, we’re not in a textbook economy anymore, we’re in “Econotainment.” 
