Jane street steals retail traders money, sebi helps jane street by increasing position limits, and punishes retail traders by planning to remove weekly expiry.
Jane street has appealed against the “playing to the gallery” fine by sebi.
Most probably sebi will let of jane street with a few crores fine, unless their big bosses want to teach trump a lesson…(which they wont).
So retail traders money stolen by jane street and similar hft and by stt and multitude of taxes by sebi on 90% of traders who lose on one side, ridicule , calling names and hilarious advice by supporters of sebi and their big bosses on the other side.,Poor retail traders are helpless unless god intervenes.
(Here’s one more attempt at steering this towards a productive discourse)
@drsennath as discussed here please reconsider playing the victim. While it may be a perfectly valid coping strategy, i sincerely doubt it helps in the long run.
If you can’t help it, can we atleast please avoid pushing the narrative that all retail traders are victims. There are enough distractions preventing folks from thinking productively. Let us not add one more to the list of potential excuses that folks can give to explain their failing trades, instead of introspecting, improving their strategies, diversifying into other assets/instruments, and taking proactive steps to minimize/avoid being the victims of changing circumstances in the near future.
Do you agree this would help most? ![]()
Read this
hi in the link you had shared for the bull call spread the probability of profit is 38% the max profit is 9260, the max loss is 5740.
from the pop we can conclude 38/100 trades is successful. even if we conclude the 38 trades got the max profit i.e 38X9260 = 351880.
from the pop 62 trades were unsuccessful so 62X5740=355880.
so net loss is 4000 after 100 trades even if you get full profit in all successful trades which is not possibe.
if u add brokerage and other charges then the loss will be higher. no strategies including spreads can give profit without adjustments, thats my view.
Debit trades only when you’re certain of the direction. ![]()
Credit spreads when in trading range. ![]()
I personally prefer naked puts ![]()
A few thoughts on the PoP (Probablitly of Profit) metric.
IIUC, that is not what it means, rather it is an over-simplification. ![]()
Based on the post on PoP, it appears to be a composite technical indicator, calculated as…
[ Source ]
In the previous discussion about PoP, it was clarified that the metric does NOT account for
fundamentals, (other) technicals, historical price movements, any upcoming events, …
and is considered a metric to help quickly identify strategies with extreme odds based on current market prices. Not that PoP has any predictive/forecasting power (not even in the aggregate, not over time). @Sensibull can clarify if the same continues to be true.
Since, the PoP estimate is based on the Black-Scholes model, it would also be interesting to know how often does the model (and in turn PoP) end-up accurately forecasting the actual behavior of the Indian index option market? A quick online search lists several studies over the years [1] [2] [3], that describe instances where the model tends to mis-price options in the Indian market.
Based, on all these uncertainties associated with the PoP metric,
using it to calculate expected-value might not be the right thing to do.
Thoughts? ![]()
…and what’s the accompanying risk management strategy of your choice?
( how are the potential downsides being limited? )
Rolling for a credit if possible. ![]()
Mental stop at 1.5-2x credit received. ![]()
I usually sell ATM or ITM and at 90 DTE, so the credit is juicy ![]()
Profit target at 50% of credit received, managed at 21 DTE. ![]()
Tasty mechanics with my own backtests ![]()
@pavinjoseph
Hows liquidity? What contract are you on now?
Whats you data source, and any bt python libraries you like?
Liquidity in far month contracts have improved a lot lately. Very easy to get in and out, though not without paying the market makers their due. ![]()
Currently have positions in Oct and Nov series of Nifty. Experimenting with NatGas too as the next month contract liquidity has improved and the IV is high enough for tasty like strangles to work. ![]()
Not using any python libraries or automation for this. Have some alerts set up in Kite. ![]()
In my opinion,No Strategy or Spread works fully. Even you are profitable brokerage & STT & other charges will simply eat your profit & retailers are left with nothing. This entire system is rigged & designed for the benefit of FII, Brokers & big institutions. Retailers rarely have a chance to make profit especially from derivative. Nobody knows how many Jane street still exist.Harsh but its True Reality.
