Liquid etf risks

Hi,

I’m a trader from chennai with 5 years of experience. I want to park my 60 lakhs rupees money safely as a waiting period till i get trading and investment opportunities in the market. This is a huge and hard earned money of me. I dont want to have it in bank or bank fixed deposits as i may require this money anytime for my trading and investment opportunities. So I came to know and read a lot about Liquid etf and liquid funds are specially designed for this cash parking purpose. But I want to know how safe my capital will be if i invest it in Liquid etf like Nippon liquid etf or zerodha liquidcase etf partially like 30 lacs each. I’m aware of liquidity risk, credit risk, dividend interest risk, etc. But I want to know , Is there any chance of danger for my capital due to any condition or any default activities? My capital would be safe? Im afraid because this is huge money for me. Or else, is there any other better ways to park my money safely if there is some capital risk in liquid etfs? Pls clear my doubts friends. Thanks.

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Look at the riskometer of the ETF, as with everything in the market the reward is proportional to the risk. :face_holding_back_tears:

Among liquid funds, there are overnight funds with low risk and others with low to moderate risk. Overnight funds being all TREPS and reverse repo is safest but with lower returns. Normal liquid funds may have commercial debt included as well, but very low amounts, so slightly higher returns - slightly higher risk. :dizzy:

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Liquid ETF is pretty safe from what i have seen. But it would be better to park a larger chunk in liquid Mutual fund instead. That is what i have done. i have a 90% of my liquid cash in liquid fund and 10% on hand. over time i am gradually withdrawing from the liquid fund to invest into stocks and equity MFs.

ETFs are good for short term like weeks. If for longer, go for liquid fund - you wont see the amount on boooks every single time you open kite, and nor will you see movement in portfolio with each paisa movement in liquid etf price.

In debt funds, i have seen higher risk in credit risk funds, and in funds that invest larger in G-Sec. Other than these debt funds are mostly safer, due to high credit rating or liquidity of instruments.

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Any instruments/assets you choose to park your funds in,
one thing to look at would be their historical performance
(or the historical performance of the fund’s current constituents)
in market scenarios that you are expecting to occur in the near future
when you expect to get trading and investment opportunities in the market.

Can avoid parking in instruments that had dropped in value when such opportunities occurred previously.


On a related note, it sounds like you might be trying to time the market.

Reminder that the general consensus is that such an approach is unlikely to provide the best returns. Here’s a study of the last 20 years in the US comparing trying to time the markets and otherwise. Especially if one considers the opportunity cost of one’s time/attention that one needs to actively trade/invest as well.

Maybe diversify and park some (or most?) but not the entire portfolio into liquid (and relatively lower return assets) right now? :thinking:

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Ahh the irony, traders doing F&O are afraid of danger posed by liquid ETF.
Sorry could not help but chuckling :smirk:

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Debt is inherently more dangerous than F&O because of default risk. That’s exactly what the OP is afraid of.

In F&O, there is near zero chance of default… I haven’t heard at anytime that the money earned in F&O was not realized. The same isn’t the case with debt. One default somewhere and poof… your money is gone…Yes Bank AT1 bonds are an example… Even Yes Bank equity holders weren’t affected…

In F&O, you can clearly mark the maximum risk before entry. And profit makers rarely bet significant amount of their capital, in most cases <5% of networth. That’s not the case with debt. Because debt is “seen as” safer, large amounts of capital is put in, often more than 50%.

Golden words.
At this point I am not even sure which multiverse I am living in. :stuck_out_tongue:

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GenZ logic.

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After reading that post, I decided to not reply. :grimacing:

Was there any other way one could make lesser sense? :smiling_face_with_tear::smiling_face_with_tear::smiling_face_with_tear::smiling_face_with_tear:

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While the risk of a default i.e. Credit risk is applicable on debt,
IIUC, in case of Liquid ETFs that OP is interested in above,
a combination of

  • minimal duration of debt (eg. overnight = 1d)
    and
  • credit-ratings of the collateral involved (eg. sovereign guarantee on T-Bills and GSECs)

…result in a near zero credit risk.

Source: Investment methodology of Nifty 1D Rate Liquid BeES and Zerodha LIQUIDCASE.


On the topic of risk - 24 Types of Risks from Howard Marks' 'Risk Revisited Again' memo.
  1. Losing money – The possibility of permanent loss is the main form of risk.
  2. Falling short – Not having to make necessary payouts or income to live on.
  3. Missing opportunities – Not taking enough risk.
  4. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) – Jumping on the bandwagon of risky investments for fear of living with envy.
  5. Credit – The risk that a borrower will be unable to pay interest and repay principal as scheduled.
  6. Illiquidity – The inability to sell when you need the money.
  7. Concentration – The risk of not being diversified when sectors drop in value.
  8. Leverage – Losses are magnified when investments decline in value by using borrowed money.
  9. Funding – The need to make a capital call when a loan comes due.
  10. Manager – The risk of picking the wrong one.
  11. Overdiversification – The standards of inclusion may drop leading to the potential of lower risk-adjusted returns.
  12. Volatility – This introduces an emotional component that may result in a permanent loss from selling too soon.
  13. Basis – This applies to arbitrageurs who go long one security and short another based on one being cheaper than the other and common patterns repeating themselves and yet something goes awry where the relationship breaks.
  14. Model – Excessive belief in a model’s efficacy can lead to excessive risk taking.
  15. Black Swan – Just because something hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t happen. This is the statistically inconceivable event that materializes.
  16. Career – If rewards are shared asymmetrically then it may not be in a money manager’s best interest to take risks where there could be short term pain, but long-term pain for fear of losing clients or his or her job.
  17. Headline – This is when losses are big enough that they can potentially generate media attention.
  18. Event – Tends to apply to bondholders when the equity owners leverage up the company and put the bonds at more risk.
  19. Fundamental – Assets or companies underperform in the real world.
  20. Valuation – Overpaying for an investment.
  21. Correlation – Being less diversified than expected. Everything goes down much to the surprise of an investor.
  22. Interest Rate – The risk that higher rates can lower the value of fixed income securities and other yield-oriented investments.
  23. Purchasing Power – The risk that cash received in the future will be eroded in value due to inflation.
  24. Upside – The risk of being under-exposed to very good economic and financial events that occur in the future.

Source : Howard Marks’ “Risk Revisited Again” memo .

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  1. What about fraud? Cooking books and providing safety on paper but in reality, funds are invested elsewhere. New innovative frauds bypassing regulations are happening all the time. Why won’t it happen with debt funds?
  2. Some liquid funds do invest outside government securities and fraud on corporate part also comes into play- buying ratings to outright shell companies.
  3. Unlike FDs, the amount is not even insured by any authority. If it is really safer than FD, does any authority put money where the mouth is.
  4. For all the jesting regarding my opinion, I see no one talking about real world example of debt vs equity in the case of Yes Bank AT1 bonds. Debt was completely wiped out. Poof. While equity only lost in value temporarily.

Regular losses are posted by almost all new F&O players, but they always knew there’s a possibility of that much loss, which is not the case with debt. It hurts when you don’t know what hit you. From a investor POV, there is always

  1. default risk - fraud and
  2. concentration risk - a huge percentage of networth put in debt.
  3. risk of real negative return after inflation and taxes, which is again subtle compared to negative return of F&O.
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https://www.valueresearchonline.com/stories/52673/debt-is-riskier-than-equity/

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/stories/224060/debt-mutual-funds-why-negative-returns/

Put the money in SB account of a Bank and earn interest. Does the liquid fund give you more returns than SB interest. By reading your post, your primary concern is safety, go for simple straight forward SB ac of a Bank.

@BB789 i too find that humor/sarcasm do often come in the way of a serious discussion to understand different/opposing views.

In this case i believe it is simply a bunch of us talking past each other about different aspects in this single topic-thread.

OP and others in this thread are focused on specific near-zero risk debt instruments (2 specific Liquid ETFs that OP shared) and not the debt class in general that you are highlighting the risk in.

@BB789 If your point is that debt has its own set of risks associated with it, i don’t think anyone is arguing against that. Similarly, i believe you aren’t claiming that the couple of risks you highlighted with debt class are relevant in case of the 2 Liquid ETFs that OP mentioned. Right? :thinking:


Since the previous comment is posed as a comparison between F&O and debt,
resorting to the following responses along the same lines to the various risks highlighted…

Isn’t risk1 above also always present with most investments (Equity, F&O) as there are always some intermediaries involved?

Is there a independent specific risk with concentrating in Debt?
(apart from that it can lead to risks 1 and 3)
Otherwise, sure, concentrating into any asset (or asset class) is a risk.
Not something unique to Debt.

What’s subtle about it?
Sounds pretty much like the portion of profitable traders in F&O
who cannot beat risk-free rate of return of a zero-risk passive investment lie a GSEC.


Note: I couldn’t read either of the 2 valueresearchonline articles posted above as they appear to behind a login. If possible, please share the contents (text/screenshots) of the same in the above comment/post. Thanks.

Reading the 3rd article, not sure if it is especially relevant to the OP / this thread, as the focus is not on making any positive real returns from debt over a short period (near future), but to simply park in most liquid and reliable asset to react to a changing equity market.
(PS: i don’t think OP or anyone will succeed in such an endeavor to time the market.
But that’s what they are trying.)

Also,
the generally true observation that returns from debt usually do not beat inflation,
is it currently true for the near immediate future?
Right now, we are in a period of relatively lower inflation
that even post tax returns of certain sovereign debt can beat.


Since the sums involved for OP (upto 60L) exceed DICGC insured limits (5L),
it might not be straightforward to simply “stick it into an SB account” without additional risk.
At the very least, OP might have to rely on accounts at a half a dozen or so DICGC insured banks.
Are there enough such banks that offer savings-bank deposit interest of 5-6% ?
(i.e. to beat the current returns from the 2 Liquid ETFs being considered earlier in the thread)

IIRC, some banks may offers such rates on fixed-deposits.
However that introduces some risk of liquidity.

If in the near future,
OP is expecting to be able to liquidate their current holdings and invest in equity markets within minutes,
i.e. when they spot an opportunity,
then a FD (even a digital one) might not meet their requirement.

On the other hand, if OP is OK with a delay of a day (or two),
(to prematurely withdraw an FD and subsequently move the cash into their trading account)
then probably digital FDs at a couple of DICGC insured banks
is something they can add into the mix, and diversify they “parked” funds.

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First - You dont stick it into an SB account. You transfer funds to a SB account by way of IMPS/NEFT/RTGS or by way of cheque.

Absolutely no need. Just one PSU bank mainly SBI or any big private sector bank is more than sufficient. The amount is 60 Lacks and not 60 Lack trillion etc or something in that range that he needs to worry about DICGC and Insurance. Check out the deposits held by SBI it is around 53.82 lakh crore and if someone worries about safety of SBI, then nothing much can be said as the author issue was safety

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To be clear, if a complete financial noob asks me for a safest way to put their small amount of money, I’d just suggest diversified FD and/or diversified liquid funds that invest in sovereign assets only, not equity and F&O. However, The asker is a F&O trader and the money is significantly above the DICGC insurance limit. People generally underestimate the risk associated with debt. That’s my main point of contention. Risk with F&O is well known and apparent, but risk associated with debt funds is not so much and well hidden relative to F&O.

Fraud on the part of AMC is still relevant, while I consider it safe, but still not zero. That’s why diversifying even within the same asset class is not a bad idea. Negative return is also relevant.

Again, since people underestimate risk of debt, they invest/park their funds disproportionately more in debt. Concentration in any asset is indeed risky. But what’s actually more common is people allocating more funds in debt. Like what percentage of Indian savings go into debt/FDs rather than equity or more productive business or F&O. I read it’s 90%. That amplifies the credit/default risk and the negative return risk multifold.

Yeah. No… Hard to believe data from the government, which hides data and hates criticism. Not just me, The markets don’t believe it either. Markets aren’t reacting like we are growing fast or that GDP is that high or that inflation is that low. The only thing that the government cannot control without significant cost to itself is the exchange rate. Everything else can be cooked up. Even when the fed cut rates, and dollar weakened, rupee weakened further making another ATH… We do know inflation contributes to currency depreciation. Whether that’s a significant factor, we can’t say without independent data.

Maybe it’s because it is actually high.

Again, as a proportion, profit makers as very low. So it’s a well known fact that F&O players make negative return… But not many who invest in FDs or debt know much about inflation or that their real return is negative. That’s what’s subtle about it. A subtle disease is worse than something which causes immediate pain and forces you to stop/go to the doctor or change something. F&O might be painful, but it stops most people fast. Very few continue and those that are profitable make the necessary changes. Also, in case of most F&O players, even if they make 0.1%, the underlying margin is already invested in equity or debt, in both cases the return is over and above the underlying return. Almost no one plays with just huge plain cash.

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:sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping:

Well, a lot can be still be explored and said.
( has been already in this thread, and will continue to be as long as folks are interested :slight_smile: )

working-youve-got-mail

OP’s requirement wasn’t absolute safety without other constraints.

There ARE other constraints.
Primarily, quick access to the capital in a certain scenario (equity market downturn) in the near future.

Without such an additional constraint,
one could even cut out one more middleman - SBI, and simply hold RBI GSECs/SDLs/TBills,
further eliminating whatever nominal risk SBI introduces in the chain.
(and even receive additional higher returns as well)

However, this is not a prudent approach in OP’s scenario because timely liquidity is not guaranteed.
In fact, from personal experience over several years (of being on the other side of such “desperate to liquidate” trades), i can attest that one will likely end-up with a haircut of 5-10% trying to quickly liquidate GSECs / SDLs / T-Bills on NSE/BSE during moments of significant equity market downturns.

i believe OP already understands this aspect.

@Prabhakaran_N now that we think about it,
any part of your funds that you wish to park now and that you later intend to use for trading on intraday margin,
have you considered investing in GSECs, that you can pledge, and have instant intraday margin at hand?
(Note1: Remember to pick GSECs with high volume lest they become unpledgeable An Example.)
(Note2: Do not plan/expect to be able to sell GSECs for immediate margin for delivery investments. An example.)


While we are at it, let’s talk about the relative safety of SBI and Liquid-ETFs -

Right. The numbers from Schedule 3 of their most recent Consolidated Balance Sheet and
the reported net global deposits in SBI in their recent annual report.

If the amount is being used as an indicator of SBI being “too big to fail”,
then Tri-party repo and reverse-repo instruments that the liquid ETFs invest/trade in,
are in the same ballpark, with daily volumes of lakhs of crores,
So for whatever it is worth, by the same yardstick, are also “too big to fail”. :person_shrugging:t4:

Also, with SBI (and its subsidiary SBIMF) incidentally being major players in this market, are often on either sides of trades in these instruments that other Liquid ETFs are exposed to. Thus lending more of their “too big to fail” support to this market.


Liquidity risk (not the typical “no buyer in the market” liquidity risk)

With the red-herring (of credit risk) out of the picture,
let us now focus on the main risk with SBI (or for that matter parking funds in most banks) in OP’s scenario,
Note that in this case, we are not interested in the low probability of this entire deposit going to zero.
Rather we are also (mainly?) interested in the likelihood of the risk that at some precise moment some time in the near future one is unable to transfer funds from one’s SBI account to one’s trading account in a timely manner.

SBI’s being “too big to fail” is not going to help much,
if during an economic crisis or a significant market downturn
(precisely when OP wishes to withdraw funds), …

  • …a moratorium or thresholds are placed on withdrawals in the name of stabilizing the economy
    While unlikely, this is not something unheard of. Also, IMHO, it is something that is in the same region of likelihood of an event that OP is preparing for (to invest in the equity market downturn).

  • …infrastructure limitations prevent/delay timely funding of one’s trading account.
    Yes we won’t simply “pull it out of an SB account”. We will rely on IMPS/NEFT/RTGS, which are known to experience failed transactions and delays of hours, in times of significant market swings/crashes, during which a large number of folks are trying to move huge volumes from/to banking/trading accounts. Also, it is not just SBI involved here, let us account for any risks of delays due to the banking institutions of one’s broker as well.

Parking one’s capital in the market itself (Liquid ETFs) with quicker access to it with lesser intermediaries involved minimizes the above risk.


Tail-risk

Next, since we are discussing tail-risk involving extremely low probabilities / unlikely events -

a. we are better served by keeping aside our intuitions that are not optimized for such scenarios.

b. either deploy a “Seneca’s barbell” portfolio to try to position ourselves to potentially benefit from extremely unlikely events in consideration.

c. or diversify to avoid any single tail-event from causing any major disruption to one’s financial plan.


How Diversifying can enable higher returns (at relatively lower risk)

Even if we ignore the liquidity risks with
parking one’s capital in SBI SB account, which would later be required in a trading account,
one is likely also paying too high a price for whatever risk-management an SBI SB account offers.
This is a logical assumption as a savings bank account offers other services in addition to parking money.

A more stringent “proof” for the same could be as follows -

Anyone offering 5-6% SB interest? Apparently, SBI is offering 2.5% p/a.

For the sake of calculation, assigning a minuscule 1-in-a-billion risk of SBI defaulting
and comparing the expected-value of its 2.5% returns,
with the expected-value of an alternate asset that offers 5% returns,
the math results in this alternate asset being on-par expected-value even upto a default rate of ~2.3%.

This opens up a vast number of debt assets ranging from sovereign-debt to even corporate-debt that can offer equal or better risk-adjusted returns. Of course, one would need to rely on investing in dozens of them to avoid concentration risk, and a mutual-fund that does this (and can offer desired instant liquidity) precisely fits the bill.

Calculations (if anyone's interested, please check.
Source-code with the logical calculations `risk_expected_utility.py`
def calculate_expected_utility(asset_return, default_prob):
    """
    Calculates the expected utility (return) of an asset considering default probability.
    assumes -100% loss on default (loss of principal).

    Args:
        asset_return (float): The annual return of the asset (e.g. 7.5 for 7.5%)
        default_prob (float): The probability of default (e.g. 1.0 for 1.0%)

    Returns:
        float: The expected utility percentage
    """
    # Convert percentages to decimals for calculation
    p_default = default_prob / 100.0
    p_success = 1.0 - p_default

    # Expected Utility = (Loss on Default * Probability of Default) + (Return * Probability of Success)
    # Loss on default is assumed to be -100% (total loss of principal)
    expected_utility = (-100.0 * p_default) + (asset_return * p_success)

    return expected_utility

if __name__ == "__main__":
    print("--- Expected Utility Analysis (Default Risk) ---")
    print("Calculates expected return assuming -100% loss on default.")

    try:
        r_a = 2.5  # SBI SB interest-rate as a reference
        r_b = 5.0  # Returns from an arbitrary asset to compare

        print(f"\nGiven:")
        print(f"  Asset A Return: {r_a}%")
        print(f"  Asset B Return: {r_b}%")

        # Get default probabilities
        prob_a_input = input(f"Enter probability of default for Asset A ({r_a}%) (e.g., 0 for 0%): ")
        prob_a = float(prob_a_input) if prob_a_input.strip() else 0.0

        prob_b_input = input(f"Enter probability of default for Asset B ({r_b}%) (e.g., 1.5 for 1.5%): ")
        prob_b = float(prob_b_input) if prob_b_input.strip() else 0.0

        eu_a = calculate_expected_utility(r_a, prob_a)
        eu_b = calculate_expected_utility(r_b, prob_b)

        print(f"\nAsset A ({r_a}% return, {prob_a}% default risk):")
        print(f"  Expected Utility: {eu_a:.8f}%")

        print(f"Asset B ({r_b}% return, {prob_b}% default risk):")
        print(f"  Expected Utility: {eu_b:.8f}%")

        diff = abs(eu_a - eu_b)
        if eu_b > eu_a:
            print(f"\nAsset B has a higher expected utility by {diff:.8f}%.")
        elif eu_a > eu_b:
            print(f"\nAsset A has a higher expected utility by {diff:.8f}%.")
        else:
            print("\nBoth assets have the same expected utility.")

        # Calculate break-even probability for Asset B
        breakeven_prob_b = (r_b - eu_a) * 100 / (100 + r_b)

        print(f"\nTo match Asset A's Expected Utility ({eu_a:.8f}%):")
        if breakeven_prob_b < 0:
             print(f"  Asset B cannot match Asset A's utility even with 0% default risk.")
        else:
             print(f"  Asset B's maximum allowed default probability is: {breakeven_prob_b:.8f}%")

    except ValueError as e:
        print(f"Error: {e}")
    except Exception as e:
        print(f"An unexpected error occurred: {e}")
An example execution and results
$ python risk_expected_utility.py 
--- Expected Utility Analysis (Default Risk) ---
Calculates expected return assuming -100% loss on default.

Given:
  Asset A Return: 2.5%
  Asset B Return: 5.0%
Enter probability of default for Asset A (2.5%) (e.g., 0 for 0%): 0.0000001  <-- one in a billion percent
Enter probability of default for Asset B (5.0%) (e.g., 1.5 for 1.5%): 1      <-- some typical AAA bond just to check how EV compares.

Asset A (2.5% return, 1e-07% default risk):
  Expected Utility: 2.49999990%
Asset B (5.0% return, 1.0% default risk):
  Expected Utility: 3.95000000%

Asset B has a higher expected utility by 1.45000010%.

To match Asset A's Expected Utility (2.49999990%):
  Asset B's maximum allowed default probability is: ~2.38%

PS: If anyone reading this is still thinking of trying to time the market, :sweat:
please think of the complexities involved beyond the above superficial arm-chair analysis,
and seriously reconsider. :crossed_fingers:t4:

Still not convinced ?

Search about and read

  • Expected Value vs. Expected Utility, [1] [2]
  • Why diversification alone cannot account for all Systemic Tail Risks and Liquidity Risks.
1 Like

If OP is still waiting for short answer.

Yes.

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So… What is your advice to OP?. OP is asking