Loksabha election trading strategies!

#1

Anyone has any strategy in mind ?

For me i wont be doing anything in the futures and wont be shorting options as well.
Planning todo long strangle/straddle in index. Wont be carrying it on the counting day though

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#2

yupe buy lots of OTM CE , since now its in discount due to fall ,

#3

Everyone wants to gain big on election results but option premium for 23rd May expiry is very high. So waiting for 16th May expiry and I expect premium to cool down a little after that.

Once there is a little cool down, expecting to use bull call ladder and bear put ladder simultaneously. Both strategies has limited risk and unlimited profit.

If there is a big move, we can expect good profit from this strategy. Warning: Don’t use this strategy when premium is very high because premium will eat the profits

#4

have to google :slightly_smiling_face:
i am planning todo strangle if the premiums are relatively low and will exit before the counting day

#5

Bro, are you expecting big move before counting day ? I thought markets will be volatile and move big on counting day. There might be 1 or 2 percentage move based on exit poll. But considering the premium, profits might be very small. If there isn’t much move, long strangle will be in loss before counting day.

#6

no … playing for increase in volatility …
i think premiums will increase on friday or during monday opening …
can do one trade there

also by monday evening when exit polls are digested , there might be a big drop in premiums …
probably another trade for 2 days and exit on wednesday itself

dont want to carry during counting

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#7

counting day is also happen to be on expiry ,i am wondering how much iv will options have ?

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#8

There is one news regarding final results to be declared one day later on May 24th now

This along with counting day to begin on Expiry Day (23rd May), can the expiry day be a big trap for option buyers?

#9

This time reaction will not come as quick as in past. first due to VVPAT countings and second high possibility of fractured mandate . Incase if NDA remain close to 250 then, will allies Accept Modi to lead alliance or they will choose someone else(Gadkri or Nitish) ?. Also active meetings by KCR in few days create some hype of third front also . Picture will be clear by late evening or later. But one thing for sure it will be blockbuster action-packed expiry.

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#10

dont think expiry will affect iv that much when compared to election outcome…

Wednesday closing price of weekly straddle will be approximately 0.6 to 0.8% of the strike , but this time because of election results it could be trading at 5%

#11

i think market will be rangebound in a big trading range due to expiry

#12

unless bjp loss the election by large margin

#13

there were two upper circuits hit after the general election results in 2009 …
imho expiry wont have any effect … market move will be solely based on the election results/trend

if the post poll results are conclusive ( will be out on sunday ) , then it may water down the volatility a bit

#14

in 2009 market comes from the recession of global crisis where overall nifty is at discounted price ,so a majority government makes everyone optimistic,but this time i didnot see much upside even a full majority government is formed

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#15

my point is simple and easy to explain …

typical Wednesday closing price of BN weekly strangle is 180 - 220 points …
if wednesday closing price of BN weekly strangle is 1000+ points ( my guess ) , then we can easily conclude which event takes more importance on coming 23rd

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#16

Option value is too high for next week expiry… Is it due to election results??

#17

i did not understand what you conclude from higher value of strangle

#18

election results will have higher impact on expiry than expiry on election results …

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#19

Third front by kcr is a non starter. Stalin has snubbed kcr and his ideas

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#20

hoping for NDA rule atkeast if not bjp majority :+1: