Long term is the biggest scam

With each passing day in the stock market i am realizing that it is critical to book profits. Book profits when it is up 15-20% itself in a short period of time. Any type of asymmetric gains should be booked instead of getting greedy.

There is no such thing as long term. That is only to keep the markets stable. There is only a narrative to keep the structure stable. When shit hits the fan, and it always does in this world, the FII are almost always liquid. They don’t seem to have any issues cause they keep booking profits. They don’t sit on it and think that oh well i will stay long term i guess.

Long term is the biggest scam that has been sold to investors. It only helps in keeping the stock markets stable and avoid freezes and mass dumps. Retail investors become the exit liquidity and DII get their share from expense ratios. Individual investors end up being the ones who take the biggest hit.

Doesn’t matter if it is stocks or debt or mutual funds. Gains are gains. This current economic scenario has really shown the importance of profit booking. The markets won’t get any better just yet. So might as well book profits and stay liquid.

Seeing holdings go from +30% to -10% in a matter of days has made me realise when the gains are asymmetric then book profits. Forget about taxes, forget about future “possible gains”. Book profits and rotate capital.

Profit booking is the biggest lesson that needs to be taught to retail investors. It is shamed and shunned that don’t book profits. Don’t sell. Hold and hold and hold and when you die pass it on to the next generation for them to still hold. It “might” go up. It “might” grow. Shitty narratives being floated in this market every single day.

The world is not the same like what it was 20 years ago where there was no movement, no liquidity in the stock markets. Long term narrative no longer makes any sense. In 1990s NIFTY would hardly move and that is when it made sense to hold for years as it inched few points in few months. That is where long term investing made sense. Now in few days, some stocks move 10-20% itself. Who the hell gets that much percent gains in days. It was hard to get that much in a year, let alone in days now. When looking at a “longer” period, it seems like oh well NIFTY went sideways, but when you zoom in to shorter period chart then it shows how much movement was there, and there was scope to book like 30-40% profits if profits were actually booked.

Reliance reached the price it was in April 2025. Had someone booked profits, it would been a good thing but no hold long term. Bend over and sit and wait. Don’t book profits. Pass on your legacy so they remember you for your patience. Pass on your wealth instead of some paper holdings.

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True. The difference is like 7.5%(20%-12.5%), which may happen in a week.

It’s just F&O over a long period.

Exactly. In 1000 gains, the difference is like 75 rupees. You still get to keep the remaining 800 instead. Long term holding can just lead to the mourning the loss of full 1000 itself. But no, the narrative is - keep holding. You “may” get 2000 instead but that is not a guarantee. If you take the candy of future gains, i will let you keep the 75. So much brainwashing and narrative selling has been done.

The AMCs are no good either. They get their cut and paste disclaimers to avoid any accountability. If you are so big, so wealthy and so infleuntial, then why not bring bull runs in the market. If you have so much power? DII are pure cushions and not wealth builders. They are only strong enough as long as the SIPs are flowing. Once that stops coming in - and people are beginning to stop their SIPs more and more now - the real flaw in AMC and DII structure will be visible. They hold no real strength.

Even Quant AMC is increasing its cash position to wait for the market to bottom out now and they are shifting their plan to large cap now. Few years back even Sandeep Tandon also said that long term is an obsolete model now.

Long term to retail investors is like sugar to the brain. Gives you a dopamine hit but fries the brain and thinking receptors. Take it, and stay ignorant.

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Strongly agree that regular systematic profit-booking is a valid approach.
However, conflating not doing so, with “long term” is a mistake.
Long-term does not mean HODL.
Agreed, that anyone mixing-up those two is not being financially savvy.

The thought process that if not short-term, then HODL/YOLO is a false dichotomy!

Those aren’t the only 2 choices.
It is a range/spectrum of investment horizons.
Ideally determined by milestones/goals in one’s life.

Other aspects also touched-upon in this recent thread.

FWIW, the regulator appears to be keyed-in on this,
has recently updated the regulations to account for this and promote goal-based investing.

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If you are making profit in option trading, you should invest that profit in stocks, etf or mutual funds or FD.

Option trading can wipe out all the funds in single event.

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I realised this, when i was holding Time techno,cdsl,deepak fert etc. I asked this questions to me many times. Why i am in pain, why i didn’t book profit. Whatever you said it make sense.

Shankar sharma said “​"My biggest mistake in my investing career was to follow people like Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and Philip Fisher.”

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Partially Agree. IMO as a investor if you have achieved your investment target/Goal then its real investment otherwise its pure Emotional based trading. Just ask yourself, while making any investment did you have planned Target to book 20 or 50 or 70 or 100 % returns with full conviction or just to book & exit with 5-20% return due to poor market sentiment.
The Post Title “Long term is the biggest scam” types never ever appear anywhere post covid bull market?
Retailors will always keep losing money not because of market but lack of conviction & Goal based approach in investment. I strongly believe in Buying when people are fearful & vice versa in quality stocks.

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It is alright to lose out on an uncertain future gain rather than losing the gains already made.

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Well written post - empathise with you.

Also agree that no one tells when to sell. This I fully agree, but I always thought it was individual strategy of how they wish to invest. My personal strategy is to book profit when a purchased share meet my criteria and leave the rest and a revised target is set for the remaining lot. This reduces my average cost and I take out my Capital. At the same time, on occasions when the market had gone to 26,000 there was a small regret in my heart that only if I had not sold that small portion when I sold… This is a ongoing thing.

The point being, it is perfectly ok to buy and accumulate and hold as long as the Capital you have invested, you do not need it immediately and you are very comfortable with the fact that you understand and know the companies you have invested in. This is my personal opinion, I am invested in TCS. If I remember right, I purchased my first share in 2010 to 2011 at 500 plus. Those days this was very high for me but I wanted the share, I accumulated and over the period I sold as well. Now on hindsight If I had not sold a single share of TCS over the period, my profit would have been humangous. So holding long does help even if TCS has fallen from 4000 to 2500 or 2600. So many examples, SBI and Federal Bank… just regret selling a portion.

The point again is what is your strategy, mine is invest and take out capital and leave the balance and again when it falls buy and accumulate. I know a friend who says she wont sell whatsoever as only a portion of her savings is put and it does not matter price movement as she has conviction like me on the stocks which I have bought. Just because my kid, got lower marks during a term exam, I will not feel disappointed ya.

Long term works . Will I change my strategy, no, I want my capital out and very happy inspite of being in the game since 2007 and seen my portfolio fall to negative 20% during corona, but this did not bother me as my bread and butter was FDs at that time and even now, I did buy those days as well. At the same time, my NPS investment had fallen to -2% This shows asset allocation is important.

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I am not well versed may not elaborate properly but long term is not a scam, definitely not for MF (BAF, Flexi …) its hindsight talking we are bad at handling volatility. Do not just look at the price and say I could have sold at peak. Its place to hold companies I am sure AI improves but patience pays. With our population we have enough market.

People investing sometimes do not even consider debt. I still believe retirement strategies like bucket strategy and asset allocation has its place.

Listen to Shankar Naren/Nilesh shah kotak it eases the mind. Tough to nail exit and entry.

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Exactly, but the major strategy that is pushed in the market is buy and hold. No one talks about real strategy, about real investing approach, about what kind of goals should be used to arrive at the targets.

Might be something good that comes out of it, but the AMCs still push for long term investing. Not profit booking investing as they are at a loss every time they have to sell off holdings due to redemptions.

I am not really into options but agree - there should be diversification.

Exactly!!! People watch their portfolio go from green to deep red, but dont act on it. These investors were experts of their era, and there might be some things to take from them, but definitely not all that they teach. Technical analysis and all might still be relevant but not all that they teach.

Agreed. There should be clean targets on the returns, and not emotion based investing. Most of investing in this market is emotion based and not target based. This is one of my regrets and learning as i go.

IKR! Everyone points to the bull run and says see this is what long run gives. No one looks at the market before that and see for how long things were slow.

It is, but the problem is this keeps repeating and the block to not book profits is a deeply seated one. It is rigoursly reinforced by the systems in the market to push for long term investing and not profit booking.

That is a very neat way for cpaital preservation and investing. These are the kind of things no one tells. Diversifaction is the key - and it has saved me a whole lot when the bear run in 2024 happened. I was diversified in over stocks across different caps and that saved me a whole lot from losses. That was my very first lesson - diversify over all eggs in the same basket.

I see your point, and do agree that MFs are better than bare equity as they have more experienced people at the helm. But in a falling market they cannot provide the cushion to cover every single fall.

I second your point on multi asset allocation funds. Debt is very underrated and is very useful in such markets with high volatility. Thanks - i will check out Shankar Naren/Nilesh Shah Kotak!

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Since you said you would listen to Shankar naren and Nilesh shah i am sharing this.
In this forum we have Vishal Jain CEO of zerodha fund house. he replies and is active in AMA zerodha fund house. Put your questions, doubts even fears of investing i am sure he would guide in much better way. CEO of fund house a question away … use it to ur advantage.
I bet like Shankar naren he would repeat asset allocation, patience, index. Still hearing from an expert is assuring.

Ps: i hold zerodha elss fund and brokerage account. Not yet a fan of fund house.
This volatility is not yet scary, go through 2008 articles in outlook money or other news outlets.
Damn i got morning shift i got to go to bed.

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This is… my friend, portfolio rebalancing.
A very important tool for risk management in long term wealth creation.
Google “harry markowitz nobel prize” to know more about modern portfolio theory.

understand you are angry but why shame mutual funds.?

Probably one should meet fee only advisor or Mutual fund distribute who understand business.
A professional will explain you portfolio rebalance and gliding path as goal approaches.
On the face of it, you will feel its exactly same as

however (S)he can tailor your portfolio and transition to provide you best risk-adjusted returns, by assessing your risk profile.

yah… its really welcome move.
I would love to see completely passive -passive multi-asset mutual funds.

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Zerodha Multi Asset Fund?

yes, you are right. This is passive-passive multi allocation fund.
I should have been more specific
What i really meant
I would love to see completely passive -passive multi-asset mutual funds in lifestyle fund/target -date fund category

This category allows smooth gliding path for reducing equity allocation as you reach near to target date.

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6000% in last 1hr

Long Term is the biggest scam

But the odds of catching this?? well for me nil

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If you could, you’d make better money than Jane street.

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Basically NIFTY 50 has given 0% returns since June 2024. Those who did not book profits and rotate capital have just been exit liquidity and market pillars while investors who know how to rotate capital and book profts have been growing their capital easily.

A few qns - What was your thesis b4 you invested in the company ? Did the thesis change? If that remains intact, is your concern now driven by the fall ?

If the company financials is in a good growth path, with sound Mgmt & future, then sit out this rough ride.

But if your idea to invest in the company was to make 20 - 30%, then why dint you sell it when it reached the target ?

Complete clarity at the time of entry, will prevent us from making such sweeping statements as calling something a Scam. Markets are known to be very volatile. Also irrational in certain blocks of time. A Scam is when sm1 tells you, investing is a silky smooth road to riches, with daily +ve returns.

So I suggest you revisit the companies you invested in, identify if the issue is within the company or external. If external it is not in any1’s hands. But if the company has turned bad since your investment or you’ve met the investment objective (returns etc) then exit immediately.

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