NIFTY closed at 24577. Congrats to winners:
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Previous poll: [š„Arun_Kumar_M ][POLL][20260413]Where will NIFTY close this expiry?
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Canāt vote for two levels. 
24500 first choice 
25k second choice 
Bullish 
Letās go!! 
You can undo and place it again when you think the next choice is more likely.
I could add two choices but it might result in slot squatting
Crudeoil future contract is hitting lower circuit.
May be Jane street is active there too.
Man, most good intraday trends happens after market these days.
Crude can still be traded on mcx
160.80?
Maybe theyāll make Nifty hit lower circuits one of these days just like they did crude eh?
Your expectations are way tooooo much. We wonāt hit LC.
On a serious note, whatās your stock market experience?
Never say never. Just to clarify, I didnāt say I expect. I just thought itād be interesting to see that happening. What can I say? One of these days maybe 50 years from nowā¦ or 10 months from now ā¦ who knows? However, Iām sure they can do it even now, if they wanted, but highly unlikely.
Definitely many years more than you, probably even a decade more than you, but havenāt handled as much money as you. Not even amounts that are significant for me in the starting yearsā¦ it was more of a hobby, on and off thing for a long timeā¦ nothing serious until recently. To be profitable in Nifty F&O, I probably took longer than any other profitable trader here or elsewhere.
Lower circuit has a 50% probability. 
Maybe over a decade or two.
Thought this meant very few days.
Well. Thatās possible. But you know that all 50 stocks have to hit LC for index to hit LC ? Itās not the same like it was in 2020. There was no freeze limit then i guess. Now stocks freeze at 10 percent. And then there is 15 mins cooling period. So unless all 50 stocks hit LC we cant hit LC in nifty.
Also I am not sure about this. I may be wrong.
They canāt do it. They donāt have that money yet. They may need 1lakh crore at least to even move index by 3 to 4 percent. Again these see random numbers. I am not backing it with any data. But moving index 10 percent. That too nifty50 is not that easy.
Glad. You have hidden your identity beyond your username. So was just curious to know if I was speaking to a 21 year old kid.
Now I know I am speaking to someone experienced.
doesnāt matter to me. I donāt judge anyone by the profits that they make.
Not the math I learnt. If LC happens once in 5 years then the probability is 1 out of 1250 sessions. Assuming 250 sessions in the year.
Typically stocks will hit 10 earlier than index, and then they can move past that after freeze.
Not all 50 have to hit, Nifty is also weighted. Plus some stocks will be past 10.
Very unlikely, but happened in covid ( We had circuit freezes then from what i remember) and also i think when congress? govt lost.
I highly doubt anyone can move Index to circuit without any real reason. Line lagi hai of people wanting to buy on dip. I think what they did was move index through stocks near close, losing money in stocks but making more in options due to difference in liquidity.
That kind of thing should be illegal ofc, somewhat unnerving to see that its possible to do this, i always thought it was not possible to make money by brute forcing in liquid markets.
But the way options expiry happens gave a loophole which hopefully will be fixed through upcoming change. I wonder if other actors are trying to repeat this.
Itās not possible for 15 mins right?
So if all individual stocks are not at 10 percent, how can index be at 10 percent. What am I missing here ?
I did not read everything, so maybe i am missing some context - instant index to circuit is extremely unlikely, would need world war type event with every stock at circuit at the same time.
But after 15 min, stocks can continue falling down. So index can hit circuit afterwards even if all stocks are not below 10 percent. Also since index is weighted, if higher weighted stocks fall to 10 or below we have a higher chance of Nifty hitting circuit.
Full market pauses if index hits circuits. And we can have a halt too. I remember i had to look at this on some days during covid.
Oh wait. We are both talking about two different things. I was talking about having 10 Percent gap down at open. I said itās not possible because till 9:30 no stock can fall below 10 percent.
After that, yes itās possible.
My bad.
Yes. I guess it happened twice during covid. And it was at open within first 2 mins. I was referring to this. It canāt happen now.
I strongly feel, we didnāt have circuit freeze dying that time. It was introduced just after that
