Hi friends
there is always hype around state election results in our markets. Can anyone who is in the markets from many years tell the actual impact of this on markets ?
I understand general elections have impact . what about state ?
A little bit. If the results come out in expectation of the markets, then you can see some rally but this does not mean that the trend will continue for long. Things normalise and return back to reality in sync with global markets in few days.
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Impact in case of smaller states isn’t that much. But sometimes there are interesting instances, where the winning party is in full support or outright against the policies of a Company located in that state. In such cases there is some activity in these affected counters for obvious reasons.
For bigger states, winning in these states means you also have a better chance winning in the National election.I mean if a Party could win just UP, Maharashtra,Bihar you are almost on your way to winning the General Elections. There’s ~160 seats from just these 3 states. So in this case the impact is greater on the markets.
Which also goes to show how asymmetric the impact of northern states has been on national politics since the very beginning. Just because these states have a higher population, they get to choose the incumbent party for the rest of the nation. Completely disregarding the fact that their economic and contributions in other metrics are much lower than many “smaller states”. But then again, whatever the founders thought best 
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I guess not for long, but the markets do get impacted. If the results come out in favor of the existing government, the market’s likely to run-up. However, not all but elections in some major states may have a higher impact on the markets. Again, not a long term look.
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Results of state elections from now like Gujarat will start acting like a precursor to the general elections in 2024.
Currently, the sentiment is that the incumbent is most likely going to win in Gujarat and the expectation, for now, is same for the general elections as well. But we have 18 months to go and a lot can happen.
We have a potentially big event next week. Tough to say the impact but if the ruling party losses by a big margin. It may affect sentiment in the short run. For a week or two.
How are you planning for this month’s trades?
I don’t care whoever wins or loses. I just want Markets to go down so that I can buy something at lower level
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I had short calls which I am still holding. I don’t how the market is going to behave when the ruling party loses in a state especially when there is Central election next year. I think the market movers already know the result for the 13th and tomorrow’s market move might be interesting.
Elections will definitely move the markets - 100%
If the ruling party does not win, there is a possibility of indices falling (according to me).
Thats because next year we have the Lok sabha elections and if there is a “toppling over” at state-level, then we are looking at… (you know what happens 
)
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I have seen many events ,few words from my experience:
- Bad news → Market shot up : People say worst is over
- Good news-> Market went down : people say Profit booking as every good thing is factored in.
- Bad news-> Market went down ( gap down) , people shot more then shot covering comes or even when it falls continuously its very hard to shot.
- Good news-> Market Gap up, its goes high then long unwinding comes.
I short we link market direction to a news which is very short term and due to FNO positions, game is more of Postions specific rather than news.
So , just trade or invest based upon your risk and reward. Predicting or analyzing the news outcome is worthless as its big boys arena and only operators and institutions make candles .
Also , every day there is some news taht imapcts economy , kahan tak predict karoge!
This is my mood right now. Or at least it should remain sideways. 
Hung assembly is already discounted. Unless congress gets majority, I don’t think there will be huge impact on the market.
Karnataka votes state and central elections differently. In 2013, congress formed the government very easily. And in 2014 Lok Sabha elections BJP almost swept all seats.
Personally I am not expecting huge movements.
1 percent either sides if we get hung assembly.
2 percent down if congress surprises with majority.
I am happy with this - almost an year now with a 2+% move
I just want vix to move up. Let it go either ways.
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You’re from Karnataka. What are you expecting?, Hung assembly or Congress majority
Most likely hung assembly. Couple of weeks back congress had better chance to form the government but then came Modi wave. 
I guess he was there for almost a week with all the rallies.
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I got it totally wrong. Didn’t I?
I think what tipped the scale were 2 trends
- Say no to 40% sarkara
- PR vs Pyaar
lets see if this trend is your friend or not !
Yes. Brazen corruption that affected daily lives. Aptly punished.
Yes. Brazen corruption that affected daily lives. Aptly punished.
Hopefully Congress will bring it down to … 38% atleast 
Actually there is one more reason.
Some of the places most preferred party was JDS followed by Congress.
This time BJP were aggressive in these regions and JDS lost the vote share to BJP only for congress to edge over JDS. 
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