Those who are holding public office should be banned from campaigning. Waste of tax payer money.
Since the growth prospects of various individual states are being discussed in this thread
one factor to consider is the Demographic Dividend.
States whose Demographic dividend windows are closing,
will likely find it harder to continue to perform well in terms of continued growth
i.e. their growth propects over the next few decades will likely not match their past few decades.
Whereas states that have traditionally lagged in growth prospects,
might find development easier now (and in the near future)
due to their maturing population entering the workforce i.e. demographic dividend.
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Note that Demographic dividend is NOT a guarantee of a growth.
Proper execution in the form of…
- well thought through policies
- and timely investment
…are key to harnessing the potential provided by a demographic dividend.
But I see very less chances of something like this playing out if the states with open window do not make policies suitable for industrialization and businesses to prosper.
One thing we often forget is that those states which have done really well in recent years in terms of business activities have very close proximities to sea-coast. The states of CG, Jharkhand, MP, UP , Raj, Bihar are fully land-locked, hence only companies with no export needs and who are targeting only domestic consumers. Companies with export needs would loose out in cost setting up factories in these states.
Then there’s also the case of conflict with china and pak, you see in any condition of any conflict with these countries, north would get more disturbed and unrestful than the south, in a way making a cover for southern states. Any site in Raj or Bihar is easier to bomb than in Maha or Karnatka or odisha as they would have to fly over land.
So I don’t see demographic dividend playing any significant role here. Any state with good policies would attract skilled workers as even now a days you can see people from Bihar working in TN despite not even knowing even their language. Whats your take on this?
But Gujarat is developed inspite of sharing border with Pak. West Bengal is not developed inspite of having a coastline.
Yes you pointed out rightly, ultimately it depends upon the state governments to promote what is good for their state. In the same time period with same central govt. policies, Guj went from zero to hero. It may be attributed to their inherent business trait, you know marwaris. And on the other hand Bengal with its anti-capitalist mind set not only stopped Tata to set up industries but also chased away their home grown MNC Birla. Thats why extremism in anything is bad…
Why is Kolkata still lagging among the metro cities of India? - Quora
This also firms by belief that demographic dividend for states mean nothing if not for good govt policies and your demographic dividend could well be better utilized by other states with good policies. Because moving among countries is difficult but among states are not.
And hence I do not see TN or Karnataka to grow slower than Bihar, Jharkhand, Raj or CG.
Since you ask…
OK. 
Like i said above, Demographic Dividend is one factor to consider…
In addition to the factors you mentioned above… …and many other factors.
Am not making any assertions about which factor will dominate over the next few decades.
To me this is a situation similar to (note, not identical)
the famous international “brain-drain” that has occurred over the past few decades from India to the US.
Seems natural that people move to other states for employment, and in the process, boost that destination state’s economy. However, if anyone’s hometown / state provides employment and growth opportunities,
it also seems natural that people will avoid traveling to other states to find work.
In addition, with potential for growth, experienced workers and entrepreneurs will happily flock back to their hometowns / states - i.e. a reverse-brain-drain.
All things considered, here’s why i believe the Demographic dividend is an important leading indicator.
(though not a dominant factor on its own)
The knowledge of an upcoming demographic dividend can break the chicken-egg problem of requiring significant long-term investments for infrastructure development. The expectation due to an upcoming rising demographic dividend can drive investment and policies that form a positive cycle driving further growth and prosperity.
If a significant number of wealth-owners and policymakers
agree about an upcoming demographic dividend in a state,
then that shapes investments and policies in that state,
thus creating more business and employment opportunities in the state,
and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy making it a lot easier for some states to grow and prosper.
IMO, a demographic dividend is the potential. Not a sufficient condition/guarantee for growth on its own.
Any of the 100s of challenges ranging from local corruption to international conflicts, and anything in between, could squander the potential growth during a specific period due to a demographic dividend.
TL;DR : As an investor,
i would watch-out for good/decent development policies in states with upcoming Demographic dividends and invest in opportunities in such states with higher confidence.
(Investment opportunities could be real-estate, REITs, state infrastructure/utility bonds, stocks of regional suppliers in any particular domain. All such will have a higher chance of success / lesser risk associated with them, compared to their respective equivalent investment opportunities from other regions/states without an upcoming demographic dividend.)
Thanks, I understood that demographic dividend can play a part in development if the youth is educated rightly and are able to think rationally, asking the right questions and accepting to learn new and reject old sluggish ideas.
Yes, and govt support would give it tailwinds…
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Here’s an article from Business Today explaining how state elections and central elections would effect the markets. It examines how different governments differ in their economic policies and what “growth” means for different people in power. Definitely a good-read.