Weekly Trading Diary: 21st to 25th February 2022

Tradingqna · February 20, 2022, 11:43am

A thread for discussing all your trades, strategies, ideas, news, stories, etc.

A quick look at what the markets have been up to in the week gone by.

Escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine kept the markets all around the world volatile. Sensex and Nifty recovered from early week lows but extended the losses for the second week running, ending another week marginally lower. Globally, except China, all major indexes slumped up to 2.5%.

Except for minimal gains in the IT sector, all other sectoral indices traded lower in the week ended 18th February. Metals and Realty being the top draggers, down over 4% for the week.

Key economic events to watch our for in the week;

	21 Feb		22 Feb		23 Feb		24 Feb%		25 Feb%
China	PBoC Loan Prime Rate	US	Services PMI (FEB)	Eerozone	CPI Inflation (JAN)	US	GDP (Q4)	US	Durable Goods Orders (JAN)
Japan	Services PMI		Manufacturing PMI (FEB)				Jobless Claims		Pending Home Sales (JAN)
Eurozone	Services PMI(FEB)		Markit Composite PMI (FEB)				Home Sales (JAN)		Fed Monetary Policy Report
	Manufacturing PMI (FEB)		Consumer Confidence (FEB)
	Markit Composite PMI (FEB)

What are you looking forward to in the coming week? Share below

Prakashsingh · February 21, 2022, 3:19am

Good Morning Tqna folks,

There’s way too much drama happening on the russia ukraine tussle front and markets across the globe are reacting to every news. Thereby making it extremely difficult to trade.

The good part though is - It has already been more than a week and market may soon choose to decide the direction irrespective of the news.

For that observing the price action becomes critical, Im working with 17100 and 16900 as expected and extreme range when it comes to downside and 17450 and 17600 when it comes to upside.

Below/above these levels we may witness trending moves

I’m personally going to watch the price action and only then decide my trade. Till then , I’ll focus on building a strategy for next month stock trading wise. Will update if I find anything interesting here.

Prakashsingh · February 21, 2022, 8:52am

Similar pattern can be seen from last one week.

We get some or the other news (mostly negative one) regarding Russia ukraine at 2-2.30 PM

Tradingqna · February 21, 2022, 1:37pm

Nifty & Sensex retraced from the day’s highs, ending another seesaw session on a lower note for the fourth straight session. US markets look set for a weak start.

Brent Crude: 91.43 +0.04%
USD INR Spot: 74.505 -0.21%
India 10Y Bond yield: 6.694 +0.47%

Almost all sectors finished the day in negative, with the Media index being the worst performer, down 2.71%. Nifty Bank was the only sector to end in green, with a 0.23% gain.

Amongst the F&O stocks

Vodafone Idea was the top gainer.
Indiabulls Housing Finance was the top loser.

In the news

Though early days, private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Monday said that the 2022 southwest monsoon could be ‘normal’, finishing around the mid-way mark of the normal range of 96-104 % of the Long Period Average.

RWE & Tata Power form a partnership to explore the potential for joint development of offshore wind projects in India

Reliance Jio to land multi-terabit India-Asia-Xpress undersea cable system in Hulhumale, Maldives. High capacity & high-speed IAX will connect Hulhumale directly with major internet hubs in India & Singapore

Strides Pharma gets US FDA approval for Amantadine Hydrochloride Softgel Capsules, used to treat infection caused by various strains of influenza A virus, in the American market.

Around the world

Japan’s manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months in February as output contracted, underscoring the prolonged impact that global supply chain disruptions are having on the world’s third-largest economy.

German producer prices rose in January at their fastest rate since modern records began, soaring 25% as energy costs spiraled and extending a run of sharp increases expected to keep consumer inflation at around 5% for several months more.

Prakashsingh · February 22, 2022, 4:18am

Lets see if the range gets taken out decisively. I would like to be brave and start buying from here on . CMP 16872 for reference.

I feel majority of the war outcome is factored in (sanctions etc)

Lets see. Im prepared to buy if mrkt dips further v(trades ill take for march expiry btw)

This will be a positional bet and ill look to hold for 3 weeks Trgt maybe 1000 points on the upside . SL 250 points

Lalit_Kishor · February 22, 2022, 8:29am

perfect time to sit on hand, can’t digest volatility

Prakashsingh · February 22, 2022, 10:34am

17100 ++ So far

Will trail SL to 16820 and ride…Max risk of only 50 points now. Im expecting 1000 points by March 10th from buy price.

Although index wise we saw smart recovery, stocks are still weak and havent bounced back properly yet. need to see the Price Action in stocks for next couple of days.

Only when stocks are truly back, we may get reasonable assurance that intermediate bottom is in place.

Tradingqna · February 22, 2022, 12:49pm

Benchmark indices recovered by over 1.3% and 1.5% from day’s lows but closed on the lower side following the global selloff as Ukraine-Russia tensions escalated further.

Brent Crude: 97.7 +2.7%
USD INR Spot: 74.875 +0.50%
India 10Y Bond yield: 6.749 +0.84%

All sectors closed in the red today, with the Nifty Media index losing the most, down 3.30%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

Nippon Life India AMC was the top gainer.
DLF was the top loser.

In the news

Hero MotoCorp joins hands with BPCL for EV charging infrastructure

India VIX, Volatility Index Rises Up To 16.42% To Hit A 11-month High and Closes at 26.66 as Geopolitical tensions rattle equity markets across the world.

Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Systems Group BV, a part of Motherson Group, on Tuesday said it has inked an MoU with Paris-based Valeo for lighting solutions.

Around the world

Gold prices rose to a 13-month high on Tuesday, as the demand for safe-haven investments went up after Russia - Ukraine tension rises.

Oil prices climbed to over $97.5 a barrel, highest since 2014 as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, adding to supply concerns that are pushing prices to near $100 a barrel.

U.S. and European governments threaten new sanctions after Vladimir Putin recognizes two separatist republics in eastern Ukraine.

Prakashsingh · February 23, 2022, 3:22am

Good Morning Folks

SGX is indicating a gap above 17200. Frankly speaking, I dont expect this to sustain. So, intraday we may see wild swings (maybe even going to red once)

My positional view is long (in nifty). trgt is atleast 17800.

This is one thing that I would like to keenly observe today.

Tradingqna · February 23, 2022, 12:43pm

Nifty and Sensex struggled to hold positive territory and closed lower in a choppy session. Dow and Nasdaq futures are on a rise, signaling a positive start for US markets.

Brent Crude: 93.41 -0.47%
USD INR Spot: 74.555 -0.43%
India 10Y Bond yield: 6.742 -0.10%

On the sectoral front, except Nifty Auto and IT indexes all other indices closed the day in green. Nifty Realty index was the top gainer, up by 3.15%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

Crompton Greaves was the top gainer.
Gujarat Gas was the top loser.

In the news

The Indian traditional PC market, inclusive of desktops, notebooks, and workstations delivered a strong year with shipment growth of 44.5% year-over-year (YoY) in 202, according to International Data Corporation (IDC)

As India shapes its energy transition to cleaner fuels, Mukesh Ambani on Wednesday said technological advancements will make India a global new energy leader, exporting half a trillion dollars worth of clean energy in two decades.

PNC Infratech emerges lowest bidder for 3 new hybrid annuity model (HAM) projects by NHAI in Uttar Pradesh worth an aggregate bid project cost of Rs 4,384 cr.

Cadila Health’s Zydus gets USFDA nod for Dapagliflozin tablets, used to treat chronic kidney disease & used to lower the risk of heart failure in adults with type 2 diabetes with heart disease.

Bajaj Healthcare launches Magnesium L-Threonate in Nutraceutical segment, used to prevent the loss of synapses and to improve the cognitive functions of the brain.

IndiaMART to acquire 26% of the share capital of IB MonotaRO for ₹104.2 cr.

Around the world

Malaysian palm oil futures hit a record high on Wednesday, helped by supply jitters amid escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis and dry weather in South America.

New Zealand’s central bank raised interest rates for the third straight meeting and signaled more to come to contain inflation.

Prakashsingh · February 24, 2022, 3:21am

Good Morning Folks

With Putin Announcing military action, Markets are bleeding massively, with opening likely to be 450 points down near 16600-650 as per SGX.

I had a positional long in nifty which is most likely to be stopped out. These are the scenarios which we have to be prepared in the mrkt. luckily the position size is manageable.

First hour will be the key today. My focus will be on mid n small caps which were already beaten down heavily. Im personally expecting outperformance on that front.

With regards to nifty, will update if I find any opportunity…My strategy from here is clear…take risk defined longs on major dips. (with 16800 getting taken out , that becomes the resistance for now…ranges emerges as 16200-17000)

Im still looking at 17600-800 within short span.

Tradingqna · February 24, 2022, 12:45pm

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a massive sell-off in equity markets around the world, Indian benchmarks ended the day down by around 4.75%.

Brent Crude: 104.32 +7.16%
USD INR Spot: 75.65 +1.47%
India 10Y Bond yield: 6.762 +0.34%

All sectoral indices concluded the day in deep negative. Nifty PSU Bank and Realty indices suffered the most, tumbling more than 7%.

In the news

Indus Towers tanked over 18% after Vodafone PLC sold 2.4% stake in the company worth $200 million through a block deal at a 10% discount to yesterday’s market price.

Russian stocks plunged 50% in Thursday’s trade as trading resumed on Moscow Stock Exchange. The dollar-denominated RTS index sank 49.93% to a low of 614.19 level for the day. MOEX, another Russian index, wiped 45.21% off its value to trade at 1,690.13.

Crude oil hit $105 a barrel for the first time in over seven years on Thursday, as energy prices surged after Russia’s military assault against Ukraine.

London aluminum prices jumped to a record high for the first time after 2008 on after Moscow’s military actions in Ukraine fuelled concerns of reduced supplies from Russia, a major metals producer, and an impact from high power prices.

Prakashsingh · February 25, 2022, 3:21am

market reached 16200 and is indicating a gap up. I lost 250 points in nifty in last trade. But was glad to exit with lesser cuts.

Well…I’ll focus on stocks for now…as index is prone to news flow more than ever.

will share here if i find any interesting bets.

Folks - do share ur trades here and also invite your trading frnds to share their ideas. lets learn and grow together.

Alim · February 25, 2022, 6:26am

Hi Prakash,

Hope you’re well.

I’m new to stock market and right now I’m trading with a virtual account/Demo account. How can I learn technical trading fast.

Thanks.

Tradingqna · February 25, 2022, 12:42pm

Nifty and Sensex end a seven-day losing streak and gain 2.53% following the global market rebound. Dow and Nasdaq futures indicate a poor start for US markets.

Brent Crude: 98.14 -0.91%
USD INR Spot: 75.29 -0.48%
India 10Y Bond yield: 6.748 +0.16%

All sectoral indices ended the day in positive territory. Nifty Metal and Realty index were the top performers, both gaining over 5%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

NBCC Limited was the top gainer.
Hindustan Petroleum was the top loser.

In the news

Rising oil can burn a Rs 1-trillion hole in govt coffers in FY23; Based on the existing value-added tax (VAT) structure and taking Brent crude price of $100 - $110 per barrel, SBI believes diesel and petrol prices should have been higher by Rs 9-14 each by now.

Coal India zoomed 8.87% after the Coal Ministry said that it is considering partnerships with private companies to operate mines that had been previously shut or seen discontinued production by the state-owned company.

Adani Power surged after SC ordered 3 discoms to pay a compensatory tariff of Rs 4,200 crore. The Supreme Court has now directed Rajasthan discoms to pay the compensatory tariff to Adani Power within four weeks, which amounts to Rs 4,200 crore in total.

Bharat Forge announced that it will acquire JS Autocast Foundry India for an undisclosed sum to expand its portfolio in the industrial sector and its manufacturing footprint in southern India.

As part of its periodic review, NSE made changes in constituents in various indices, especially the Nifty Next 50 index, which will now include recently listed new-age companies Paytm, Nykaa, and Zomato. Read more here.

Around the World

U.K. consumer confidence fell in February by the most since coronavirus lockdown restrictions were first announced in March 2020 a cost-of-living crisis gained attention.

The rouble recovered 2.3% to 83.30 against the dollar after hitting a record low of 89.60 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, while market indexes rallied substantially after the biggest one-day fall in the record.

Palladium hits 6-month high amid supply fears after US sanctions on Russia’s Nornickel, the largest producer in Russia, which is also the world’s largest producer of palladium and a major producer of platinum.

TheAshoka · February 25, 2022, 6:53pm

Dont learn fast. I know why you want to learn fast. Market will teach you very very fast. So learn about basics of stock market (check Rachana ranade’s youtube channel and varsity by zerodha ). Start slow… loss less, gain less , learn slowly and this will build ur knowledge and heathly psychology to stay in market.

(Just search for "varsity by zerodha)
One place for all stock market learning source.

Prakashsingh · February 27, 2022, 7:30am

Hi Alim,

A Warm Welcome to the Tradingqna community.

https://zerodha.com/varsity/module/technical-analysis/

Check this out @Alim. Varsity content and videos both will help u get the basics strong. Once you are done with this - do let us all know here. We can recommend you other stuff.