Getting huge profits is not what I’m dreaming for, but, well i dont know what a good return is year on year.
I have a question.
As of now,
Nifty is at all time high and
Nasdaq is down 30%
As we know in future for sure most indexes return to thier top.
So will it not be wise to invest more in NASDAQ as of now.
Because NASDAQ still has 30% upside for sure, but not sure about NIFTY as it is already at life time high.
I think there are a few standard phases one has to go through before becoming a successful trader, although success here is a subjective term. And the journey for everyone could be different too, as one may feel to skip a step and move fast, one may take more time to complete an easy step. One can start from A, B, C, D or one can start right away from F and then come back to A.
A lot of things including success, capital, return expectation, risk affordability etc are subjective.
If you are really interested, be at it for a while, you will know a lot.
viewing from 1 angle it makes it attractive. but keep in mind that international investing has currency risk.
If the market has appreciated 10%, but the currency has lost 10% - then whats the point ??
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Yeah i want to continue these investments till i become old. Only debt fund is remaining to add. I have some investments in FD so I’m not in a hurry in finding a debt fund.
Can you please guide me in return expectation. what is a realistic return expected from traders?
Okay now this is something i never thought about. See as I said markets are tough. Very tough.
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One thing that many of the investors do before investing in financial products is checking just the recent returns and invest. So if 15% is in the US ETF, learn about how US market has performed for the past 20 years or so, the reasons for its performance, and what has been the performance of Indian market over the same period, the changes that happened in both the markets etc.
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US is the biggest market, as retail investors we cannot possibly predict what can happen if we don’t know much about the economic system, its history w.r.t financial crises etc. So just looking at our index and their index in percentage terms does not help.
I agree.
But in current situation,
Nifty is at all time high,
Nasdaq is 30% down. It will go up for high level for sure. (may even take yrs)
And rupee has always weaken against dollar. So it will also most likely continue.
So if in above situation I invest in NASDAQ, then I may gain around 30% if rupee stays around these levels,
may gain even more if rupee weakens further.
May gain little less like 10-15% if rupee becomes stronger (seems to be unlikely in long run, according to past performance.).
While NIFTY which is already at top, I can’t say how much it will rise. (Althought it will also rise for sure in long run.)
So it seems it would be better to invest in NASDAQ as of now.
Please tell me what is wrong in above analysis.
Very subjective, and it has a range. In investing I have come across statements like a return of what the index gives+GDP growth is fine. And as trading is done through many many ways, I don’t think I can give a number, not can present a sentence.
Not just the math, there is the element of emotion embedded in the activity. Say if I get a return of 25%, which in itself is good, and it will be great if it can be done consistently, but if I feel that for the effort I am putting in is much more than what I am receiving, I may think of stopping it, and investing in the indices, and focus my time and energy in my profession and invest more.
All these questions and doubts are also part of learning, welcome to the club 
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I don’t understand completely. Can you explain in detail please. I want to learn, as I am confused right now with NIFTY at all time high and US markets down.
Are you trying to say that we don’t know much about what will hapen in future ?
for eg. even though NASDAQ is 30% down but it can also drop 50% more.
Again I totally agree, This happened to me too.
I went in trading full on, I made money too, but after some time I feel that it takes too much time and effort.
So now I am going back to mainly investing in indexes and little trading.
Yeah i hope i will figure this out in due time.
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@Gnome I want to add one thing.
investing in all bees is good and all,
But also consider, that there is not a lot of overlap in your indexes.
For example most of bank nifty is covered in Nifty50. So in my opinion Group1 shown below is better than group2.
Group 1: NiftyBEEs, JuniorBEEs, MidCap150
Group 2: NiftyBEEs, BankBEEs, ITBEEs
Also there is a sector risk in sectoral indexes like BankBEEs, ITBEEs, PharmaBEEs etc, but for long term a diversified index is better as it doesn’t depend on one sector too much. so again Group1 shown above is better.
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Even I don’t know completely, because US is a very very big market, and not everything we learn about their market is applicable here, as there are some differences at a fundamental level, how the two countries operate. So unless I am in US and investing there, what happens there is not entirely useful for me.
So take whatever I say with a pinch of salt, meaning don’t take it as truth, these are just my inferences and observations, and I could be wrong.
US is a matured market, so a lot of money from there is coming to our market, tech, biotech, or some other sectors may have been performing well is the US, FAANG stocks were the darlings till last year, Apple still is.
So even if we say about the size of the US market, it is huge, and if we add the availability, kind of information and misinformation by media, retail participation, policy makers’ agility, courts, regulatory agencies’ intervention, US is a nightmare to an average Indian retail investor like me, of course due to the same reasons, it is fantastically fascinating.
My simple point is, to make any kind of assumptions or opinions w.r.t such a market is tough. So we have to learn so much to invest in US even through ETF route, particularly when we want to invest for long term, and want to invest a sizeable amount.
Yes, unless you are inclined, unless you enjoy, the effort even with a decent return feels like it is not worth it
Man. I am sorry. But I found it very funny. You call this market volatile ? Am glad you had not entered in 2020 at the time of corona. Or even when Russia Ukraine war broke out in Feb. what you see these days is nothing. Vix has come down to 15percent. Corona time we had it around 70.
The analysis is correct for the assumption you have made.
Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder, volatility lies in the mind of the experienced/inexperienced
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If investing in US market, it is definitely an advantage as INR is only going to depreciate. Right now nasdaq is at 32% low from its peak and it is a good start point to invest/accumulate
disc: my personal view
Okay I’ll see to that I add more to group 1 type portfolio. Can you please suggest how to invest in MidCap150 is there a good etf for that.
Thank you for the advice.
I might have used the wrong term. I dont know much about the markets. What I meant to say was too much gap ups and downs. I have been looking at charts from long time back and the gap ups and downs followed the trend atleast couple of years back. Or it happened during some major news release. But now it’s, from what i have seen is, lets say the market is trending up today, next day it gaps down and keeps moving down then suddenly the following say the market opens huge gap up keeps moving up and the very next day again gap down. My mind is blown bro.