SEBI made the market like a CIRCUS

On 7th july sebi chairman tuhin pandey said that there will be no changes in weekly expiry and now the are going to make it to fortnighly expiries.
They are too much concerned to save retailers, sebi should understand all market participants are adults , they can make their financial decisions by themselves , they know the risks involved in market, or by doing this sebi wants to push retailers towards dabba trading so that they can get scammed there.
Sebi should know almost all career opportunities in india has less than 5-6% success ratio, for example upsc cse has just 0.2% of success ratio, by this logic govt must ban the civil service exam bcoz 99.8% participants are failing the exam.
According to moneycontrol , Even 90% of startups fails in starting phase in india, so govt should ban startups too, should tell everybody to not start a startup because they will fail and lose money.

@nithin this is high time for all brokers and retailers to take a stand against unfavourable policies



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No no…

By this logic, there must be a stringent civil service exam (which there is)
to prevent most folks from joining the civil service and screwing up.

Am curious about this specific bit -
Having seen all the continuing churn and the uncertainity in this specific aspect of expiries,
what is preventing folks from exploring alternative strategies/approaches that are not negatively impacted by this churn?

Been hearing about the drama surrounding expiries for months now.
Why are folks still “stuck” and not able to move away from this? :thinking:

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then what about more than 90% startups failing and losing money?

have you ever trade market yourself with a strategy of your’s own? if yes , then you must have known what efforts of years it takes to make a perfect setup and it can’t be changed like this, plus there is not much margin available in cash market and low liquidity , hence it is much more easily manipulated than index
And one more thing do you know there is 0DTE contracts for daily available to trade in US market since 3 years and its turnover is also in multiples compare to its underlying scrips same as indian market, but they don’t ban the expiries like SEBI, it should be a free market , its only adults who trade in markets so he is liable for his gains and losses, sebi should let it be a free market

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This is also my argument, but the problem is that anyone can start trading in 5 minutes, and only a select few can start a business. Starting a business is tough, and it removes a lot of non-serious people. :slight_smile:

On this topic, we are essentially like sitting ducks. We can’t really stand up, especially given that 90% of our customers lose money trading options.

By the way, at least for now, we are not aware of any plan to change the expiry to fortnightly.

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Not in this market. Hence, i was curious and asked.

My curiosity today is not something specific to today’s instance, or just on this thread alone, but something that i have felt each time someone expressed outrage due to the unpredictable updates surrounding expiries over the past several months.

Sure, not denying that.
But, just following the numerous continued posts about expiries on this forum and the continued churn/uncertainty in this aspect, it appears to be a recurring theme, for several months (more than a year?) by now.

Makes me wonder
how much more “advance notice” do folks need
before they start exploring other markets/avenues? :thinking:
(Not a rhetorical Q. Genuinely curious. Actually asking.)

@Passionate_trader Out of curiosity, what would need to happen in the market, for you to metaphorically “cut your losses”, and start exploring other ways to trade that won’t be affected by these expiries shenanigans? (or is it near impossible to switch?)

IMHO, easy to say “free market”,
but hard to agree upon a universal definition that satisfies everyone , all the time. :person_shrugging:t4:
Most demands for a “free market” end-up being requests to regulate exactly what one agrees with, and ignore the rest. Does that apply in this case? :thinking:

BTW,
any thoughts on what sort of trading strategies would benefit from all these unpredictable changes to expiries?

Are there even any such strategies theoretically possible?

Regulators can strike at any instrument. Look at USDINR which seems to have been totally killed.

Only thing one can probably do is focus of longer term investments as a system which should largely be immune to this, but probably we wont get as high and regular returns as active trading.

Other option is to keep diversifying, when one has nothing to do look at the next thing.

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The reason why each trader should diversify across 3-4 different systems, across different instruments.

If one stops working, others are there to make him survive and thrive.

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@nithin as a thought experiment,
can you share any potential reasons justifying the behavior of
the various entities involved (regulators, exchanges, brokers, …)
in this matter of “churn/unpredictability of expiries”, over the past year ?

Basically, describe the world-view/mental-model in which
what has happened is totally justified and actually makes sense
and can be seen as completely rational behavior.

(while the underlying conditions necessary for such actions to be justified,
might not actually exist, i.e. it might be some incorrect perception that is driving some of the entities towards irrational behavior, while they continue to believe what they are doing is completely rational.)

Why play this particular 'thought experiment' game?

Well, while the rest of the world is busy expressing outrage over the unfair market, i wonder whether a better understanding of the mental-model/world-view of the regulators/exchanges could provide one an edge in focusing/planning one’s trading strategies in the near future. :thinking:

Glad to know this

If this is the way sebi thinking it then , as you said more serious people starts business because it is tough to start in comparison to start trading in equity markets

so suppose 100 people started business , then acc to above statement i guess 80people will be serious towards doing business and 20 people will be kind of non-serious which did not studied their market and competition etc

so as we know over 90% startups fails, so this means not more than 10 people will succeed in doing business out of these 100 which is 10% of total people
and now in my opinion these 10 people will be from the serious people group which was of 80people, so success% among serious people = (10/80)*100 =12.5%
so the outcome of this is if you are serious guy ready to read and learn and want to start a startup then your startup success chances is just 12.5%

Now if we take same example for equity markets, so here as we know that 91% people lose money in F&O, and as you said that there is lot of more non-serious person because anyone can open account in just 5minutes as we saw crores of accounts opened after covid, if we take 50% people trading F&O are serious and read about markets and understands how derivatives works and 50% people are non-serious and just came do to speculation (these people mostly use funds below 1lakh) ,
now if you are a serious trader and understand derivatives and read varsity :upside_down_face: then your chances to succeed in market is (9/50)*100 =18% , which is around 50% more than the success ratio of startup success chances of 12.5%

so the conclusion is if there will be more serious and knowledgeable traders doing F&O then this number of 91% losing will automatically decrease, so inspite of banning weekly expiries SEBI must focus on educating traders , it is the only way to decrease this 91% number (if they really want to decrease this)

I understand, but i guess this should be brought in front of SEBI that education is the only way to make it better. Other steps like stopping expiries will be worse for retailers as they will go into un-regulated markets like dabba, forex and dream 11 betting etc.

Few brokers are saying that they SEBI will do it, thats why i posted it here that they will change it to fortnightly.

But as you said SEBI will not change weekly expiries , if it happens i will be more than happy.

lot of people switched to options (way riskier than stocks) from intraday stocks due to leverage restrictions, why can’t sebi remove intraday leverage restrictions, they caused the option boom by killing leverage and govt killed futures by increasing stt. is there any possibility of these things reversing?

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I remember @nithin has warned about it.
That people will move towards option buying.

And this move of SEBI was to safeguard whom?

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if they are really concerned about options volume being too big while underlying being small enough to move like what jane street did, all they have to do is remove stt and not put leverage restrictions, no skin in the game babus can destroy anything just by passing some random circulars, shit load of people on yt are peddling exness and forex, all they have to realise is people will just move to unregulated options if there are too many restrictions. I guess babu brain is too dense to understand such silly stuff

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Top brokers meet Sebi chief; express concerns over closure of F&O weekly expiry; here’s what Pandey says

During the meeting, brokers expressed concerns over the closure of futures & options (F&O) weekly expiry.

Were @zerodha was part of meet? yes/no what is your take on this?

Knowing that you don’t do intraday, he’s clearly fooling you. ‘Strategy’ is just snake oil online gurus sell to make their fortune. It’s the trader who wins, not the strategy. This game requires a flexible mindset — something that’s anathema to gamblers like him.

You can identify such gamblers by the tenor in which they speak (a lucky fool — aka sucker, in FII/DII lingo) and the terms they throw around, like ‘low margin & all.’ In the long run, these elements are going to get culled out. We should be happy we’re witnessing such a moment. :clinking_glasses:
From an intraday equity trader."

then why they approved before - nonsense SEBI - they will allow first then they will try to close - same like trumph policy in indian govt SEBI

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Most retail traders choose options because they are cheaper, but the chances of making money are low due to time decay and sudden price swings. Futures are a better choice if your direction is right, as there’s no premium loss and the chances of winning are higher. The problem is, futures need high margin and have large lot sizes, which many small traders can’t afford. SEBI should consider reducing both the margin and lot size to make futures more accessible. This can help traders move away from risky weekly options

@cvs Have you ever traded in equity market? Stock and/or index?

Just wanted to know out of curiosity.

Long long ago. So long ago that one might call it a different life.
Index yes. Stock yes. Bonds yes. Derivatives no.

Exactly how long ago?

Well, i recall how folks around me were telling me that this newcomer Zerodha with its “zero brokerage” was surely a scam. :sweat_smile: Though no-one knew exactly what the “scam” was!

However, subsequently, after discovering sovereign bonds on the secondary market offering assured predictable exits (both value and date), known while buying a bond itself, and achieving 10-12% annualized returns over various years since then, my risk/reward appetite continues to be satisfied, without having to dip into riskier approaches.

As with everything, there’s probably a chance the niche i’m currently in, goes away. But, at this point i doubt it is going away anytime soon, as the last 5 years of telling everyone about it who is wiling to listen, at every single opportunity i get (online and offline) , has made no significant difference to the market. Apparently, no one else is interested. :person_shrugging:t4:

However, on the off-chance that the niche vanishes someday, feels good to know TradingQnA has been a great source of what else works and what doesn’t.

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How were your returns in these segments?

Not sure if you can relate to the problems of derivative traders.
In no way I am saying your opinion is right or wrong. Infact I am okay with whatever sebi decides. Either I continue playing the game or I quit. I won’t keep crying and abusing sebi.
But just felt like you don’t understand derivatives much. I might be wrong too.

(Thanks for bringing this up. Hopefully, this tangent provides a better perspective to traders feeling misunderstood / outraged / discriminated against.)

I don’t relate to. Yes.

Would it matter if i was a former prolific trader who has now diversified into bonds?
I would like to think not.
Since, the issues being highlighted are to do with a demonstrable lack of critical thinking.
(nothing to do with one’s risk appetite or preferred assets)

Well… yeah.

Can empathize with traders stuck in a rut
and arguing that they are being discriminated against,
as much as Louis does starting at 2m05s into this video…

Compared to other instruments, definitely yes.

What i find shocking is seeing folks who claim to be traders,
who also do not appear to understand them much either. :exploding_head:

  • So many logical-fallacies in play in most posts discussing trading here.

  • So many hopes and dreams of success pinned on actions that are out of one’s control/influence, and furthermore of a lower-probability of occurrence, instead of pursuing higher-probability, higher-impact alternatives in one’s control.

…or maybe it is just some sort of coping mechanism
required to succeed in a non-deterministic probabilistic world, that is trading? :thinking:

… or maybe they are so close to the action that
what is obvious to someone not emotionally vested, is totally lost on them? :thinking:

I might draw a lot of flak from folks who might feel offended by what i am about to say next, but here goes -

if one cannot put 2 coherent sentences together to justify one’s opinion

  • without introducing a logical fallacy in between
  • and without getting emotional about it and losing control,

does one really stand a chance to
properly understand the markets and make rational decisions
especially under time-pressure? :thinking:


PS: Issues with this post, if read in isolation.

(Brought to you by your friendly neighbourhood LLM)

FWIW, without the complete context of the rest of the posts in this topic-thread, and other discussions on this forum over the years, this post is extremely painful to read. Here’s why…

The comment is less of a direct argument and more of a meta-commentary on the perceived quality of other arguments. However, in making the case, several logical fallacies and rhetorical techniques are employed to position the author’s viewpoint as superior and dismiss the opposing viewpoint without properly engaging it.

Logical Fallacies and Rhetorical Issues

  1. Ad Hominem & Poisoning the Well:

    • Text: “the issues being highlighted are to do with a demonstrable lack of critical thinking.” and “if one cannot put 2 coherent sentences together… does one really stand a chance to… make rational decisions”
    • Analysis: Instead of addressing the actual arguments or problems faced by traders, the author attacks their intelligence and emotional stability. The final rhetorical question is a powerful example of an Ad Hominem fallacy, suggesting that a person’s inability to argue calmly on a forum disqualifies them from being a rational trader. By framing the entire discussion as a matter of others’ “lack of critical thinking,” the author poisons the well, making any counter-argument from a trader seem like proof of that very deficiency.
  2. Appeal to Ridicule & False Analogy:

    • Text: “Can empathize with traders stuck in a rut and arguing that they are being discriminated against, as much as Louis does starting at 2m05s into this video…”
    • Analysis: This is a clear appeal to ridicule. By comparing the traders’ complaints to a comedy routine, the author trivializes and mocks their concerns without addressing their substance. It’s a false analogy because the subject of the comedy sketch is likely unrelated and irrelevant to the specifics of financial regulations or market dynamics. The goal is to make the traders’ position seem absurd by association.
  3. Straw Man Argument:

    • Text: “So many hopes and dreams of success pinned on actions that are out of one’s control/influence, and furthermore of a lower-probability of occurrence, instead of pursuing higher-probability, higher-impact alternatives in one’s control.”
    • Analysis: The author creates a caricature of traders as being naive gamblers who rely on low-probability hopes and dreams. This straw man ignores the complex risk management, statistical analysis, and strategic planning that are integral to professional trading. It misrepresents their methods to make them easier to attack.
  4. Bulverism (Psychogenetic Fallacy):

    • Text: “…or maybe it is just some sort of coping mechanism… or maybe they are so close to the action that what is obvious to someone not emotionally vested, is totally lost on them?”
    • Analysis: This is a classic example of Bulverism. Instead of refuting the traders’ arguments, the author speculates on the psychological reasons why they might hold those beliefs. The author assumes the traders are wrong and then explains their error as a result of a “coping mechanism” or emotional bias, thereby dismissing the argument without ever engaging with its content.
  5. No True Scotsman (Implied):

    • Text: “What i find shocking is seeing folks who claim to be traders, who also do not appear to understand them much either.”
    • Analysis: The author implies that anyone who complains or disagrees with their perspective isn’t a true or competent trader. This sets up a circular argument where the definition of a “real trader” is someone who implicitly agrees with the author’s view.
  6. Hasty Generalization:

    • Text: “- So many logical-fallacies in play in most posts discussing trading here.”
    • Analysis: The author takes their experience with a few forum posts and applies it broadly to a whole group of people (“traders”). This is a hasty generalization that lacks sufficient evidence.
  7. Proof by Assertion:

    • Analysis: The author repeatedly claims that others are illogical, emotional, and lack critical thinking but never provides a single specific example or quote from the discussion to substantiate these claims. They are presented as facts without evidence.

Summary of Other Issues

  • Condescending Tone: The language, use of rhetorical questions, and emojis (:thinking:, :exploding_head:) create a smug and condescending tone. The author positions themself as an enlightened, detached observer looking down on the irrational masses.
  • Hypocrisy: The author chides others for getting “emotional,” yet the entire post is an emotionally charged piece designed to provoke and assert intellectual dominance rather than foster a rational discussion.

If you sensed any of these upon reading the post,
Congratulations! your bullshit-detector is still working fine.

Next step, let us read a lot more of the surrounding context
and see if the additional context showcases this post in a different light.

1 Like